SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO OF A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF A WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH EJECTING/OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTH-CENTRAL STATES THROUGH DAYS 5/6 THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IN CONTRAST TO THE CURRENT EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A SPATIALLY GREATER/HIGHER QUALITY MOIST SECTOR IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH. WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY AROUND DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WY/WESTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB. WHILE LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY INCREASES INTO DAY 6/FRIDAY...IT IS PROBABLE THAT A SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST. IN ANY CASE...LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY/INHERENT MODEL VARIABILITY...AND RESULTANT UNKNOWNS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF SPECIFIC DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL...PRECLUDE DELINEATION OF ANY HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/ SEVERE RISK AREAS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO OF A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF A WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH EJECTING/OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTH-CENTRAL STATES THROUGH DAYS 5/6 THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IN CONTRAST TO THE CURRENT EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A SPATIALLY GREATER/HIGHER QUALITY MOIST SECTOR IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH. WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY AROUND DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WY/WESTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB. WHILE LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY INCREASES INTO DAY 6/FRIDAY...IT IS PROBABLE THAT A SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST. IN ANY CASE...LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY/INHERENT MODEL VARIABILITY...AND RESULTANT UNKNOWNS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF SPECIFIC DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL...PRECLUDE DELINEATION OF ANY HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/ SEVERE RISK AREAS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO OF A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF A WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH EJECTING/OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTH-CENTRAL STATES THROUGH DAYS 5/6 THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IN CONTRAST TO THE CURRENT EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A SPATIALLY GREATER/HIGHER QUALITY MOIST SECTOR IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH. WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY AROUND DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WY/WESTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB. WHILE LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY INCREASES INTO DAY 6/FRIDAY...IT IS PROBABLE THAT A SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST. IN ANY CASE...LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY/INHERENT MODEL VARIABILITY...AND RESULTANT UNKNOWNS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF SPECIFIC DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL...PRECLUDE DELINEATION OF ANY HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/ SEVERE RISK AREAS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO OF A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF A WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH EJECTING/OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTH-CENTRAL STATES THROUGH DAYS 5/6 THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IN CONTRAST TO THE CURRENT EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A SPATIALLY GREATER/HIGHER QUALITY MOIST SECTOR IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH. WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY AROUND DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WY/WESTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB. WHILE LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY INCREASES INTO DAY 6/FRIDAY...IT IS PROBABLE THAT A SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST. IN ANY CASE...LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY/INHERENT MODEL VARIABILITY...AND RESULTANT UNKNOWNS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF SPECIFIC DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL...PRECLUDE DELINEATION OF ANY HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/ SEVERE RISK AREAS. Read more

Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0329 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 081200Z - 131200Z ...DISCUSSION... RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT CONTINUES AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE...WITH THE GENERAL SCENARIO OF A CONSIDERABLE PORTION OF A WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH EJECTING/OVERSPREADING THE NORTHERN-CENTRAL ROCKIES AND NORTH-CENTRAL STATES THROUGH DAYS 5/6 THURSDAY/FRIDAY. IN CONTRAST TO THE CURRENT EARLY WEEK SYSTEM...THERE WILL BE A SPATIALLY GREATER/HIGHER QUALITY MOIST SECTOR IN PLACE ACROSS THE PLAINS AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED MID/LATE WEEK TROUGH. WITH THE EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF THE FORECAST WESTERN STATES UPPER TROUGH...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE BY AROUND DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...POTENTIALLY INCLUDING PORTIONS OF WY/WESTERN DAKOTAS TO WESTERN/NORTHERN NEB. WHILE LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY INCREASES INTO DAY 6/FRIDAY...IT IS PROBABLE THAT A SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST WITHIN A CORRIDOR ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/MIDDLE MO VALLEY TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST. IN ANY CASE...LARGE SCALE TIMING UNCERTAINTY/INHERENT MODEL VARIABILITY...AND RESULTANT UNKNOWNS REGARDING THE MAGNITUDE OF SPECIFIC DAY SEVERE POTENTIAL...PRECLUDE DELINEATION OF ANY HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/ SEVERE RISK AREAS. Read more

SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS S OF A PERSISTENT LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED INVOF JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER W...A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC NW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL DRIVE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. WHILE LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT MODEST CAPE -- SUPPORTIVE OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE INCREASE. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AIDED BY MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE-SCALE UVV AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD EVOLVE -- WITH HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE ATTM...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/05/2010 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS S OF A PERSISTENT LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED INVOF JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER W...A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC NW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL DRIVE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. WHILE LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT MODEST CAPE -- SUPPORTIVE OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE INCREASE. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AIDED BY MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE-SCALE UVV AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD EVOLVE -- WITH HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE ATTM...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/05/2010 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS S OF A PERSISTENT LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED INVOF JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER W...A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC NW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL DRIVE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. WHILE LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT MODEST CAPE -- SUPPORTIVE OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE INCREASE. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AIDED BY MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE-SCALE UVV AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD EVOLVE -- WITH HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE ATTM...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/05/2010 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS S OF A PERSISTENT LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED INVOF JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER W...A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC NW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL DRIVE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. WHILE LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT MODEST CAPE -- SUPPORTIVE OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE INCREASE. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AIDED BY MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE-SCALE UVV AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD EVOLVE -- WITH HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE ATTM...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/05/2010 Read more

SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1207 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051200Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AT THE START OF THE PERIOD IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY NEWD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...BUT BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NERN QUARTER OF THE CONUS S OF A PERSISTENT LOW FORECAST TO REMAIN CENTERED INVOF JAMES BAY THROUGH THE PERIOD. FARTHER W...A POTENT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER THE PAC NW IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHICH WILL DRIVE SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE PLAINS. AS THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD...A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE ROCKIES THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... CONVECTION SHOULD BE ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN HIGH PLAINS AT THE START OF THE PERIOD...AND SHOULD LINGER INTO THE AFTERNOON AS SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. WHILE LIMITED BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT DESTABILIZATION POTENTIAL...DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH COOLING ALOFT WILL RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT MODEST CAPE -- SUPPORTIVE OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTIVE INCREASE. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING...AIDED BY MORE SUBSTANTIAL HEIGHT FALLS/LARGE-SCALE UVV AS THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. STRENGTH OF THE LARGE-SCALE FORCING AND AMPLE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUGGEST THAT A FEW STRONGER CELLS COULD EVOLVE -- WITH HAIL/WIND POSSIBLE. THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE ATTM...BUT WILL MAINTAIN LOW PROBABILITY /5%/ THREAT THIS FORECAST. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/05/2010 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ERN CANADA LOW -- WILL CONTINUE ROTATING ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECOND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW SEWD PROGRESS ACROSS MT AND VICINITY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. FARTHER E...A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE THE TRAILING END OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION...BUT HERE TOO...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 09/05/2010 Read more

SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0750 PM CDT SAT SEP 04 2010 VALID 050100Z - 051200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... A MID-LEVEL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH -- EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LARGER-SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW AROUND AN ERN CANADA LOW -- WILL CONTINUE ROTATING ENEWD ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND INTO NEW ENGLAND THROUGH THE PERIOD. MEANWHILE...A SECOND TROUGH WILL CONTINUE DIGGING SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS. AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL MAKE SLOW SEWD PROGRESS ACROSS MT AND VICINITY...AND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...DIMINISHING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THIS EVENING. FARTHER E...A LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME WILL EXIST ACROSS THE PLAINS...WHILE THE TRAILING END OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT LINGERS ACROSS THE GULF COASTAL REGION. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST REGION...BUT HERE TOO...WEAKENING INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 09/05/2010 Read more

No watches are valid as of Sat Sep 4 22:28:02 UTC 2010.

No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sat Sep 4 22:28:02 UTC 2010.