SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY OVERLAP RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING EARLY TO MID MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN SRN IL/IND AND WRN KY... AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS /AROUND 15 MPH/ ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SERN MO AND SRN IL/IND. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION /PER GPS TPW GUIDANCE...WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.50 INCHES/...AND IS FORECAST TO MODIFY VERY LITTLE BY MONDAY. THUS...MIN RH VALUES FORECAST BY THE NAM IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER TEENS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S F...AND WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY OVERLAP RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING EARLY TO MID MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN SRN IL/IND AND WRN KY... AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS /AROUND 15 MPH/ ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SERN MO AND SRN IL/IND. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION /PER GPS TPW GUIDANCE...WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.50 INCHES/...AND IS FORECAST TO MODIFY VERY LITTLE BY MONDAY. THUS...MIN RH VALUES FORECAST BY THE NAM IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER TEENS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S F...AND WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY OVERLAP RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING EARLY TO MID MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN SRN IL/IND AND WRN KY... AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS /AROUND 15 MPH/ ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SERN MO AND SRN IL/IND. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION /PER GPS TPW GUIDANCE...WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.50 INCHES/...AND IS FORECAST TO MODIFY VERY LITTLE BY MONDAY. THUS...MIN RH VALUES FORECAST BY THE NAM IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER TEENS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S F...AND WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY OVERLAP RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING EARLY TO MID MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN SRN IL/IND AND WRN KY... AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS /AROUND 15 MPH/ ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SERN MO AND SRN IL/IND. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION /PER GPS TPW GUIDANCE...WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.50 INCHES/...AND IS FORECAST TO MODIFY VERY LITTLE BY MONDAY. THUS...MIN RH VALUES FORECAST BY THE NAM IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER TEENS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S F...AND WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY OVERLAP RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING EARLY TO MID MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN SRN IL/IND AND WRN KY... AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS /AROUND 15 MPH/ ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SERN MO AND SRN IL/IND. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION /PER GPS TPW GUIDANCE...WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.50 INCHES/...AND IS FORECAST TO MODIFY VERY LITTLE BY MONDAY. THUS...MIN RH VALUES FORECAST BY THE NAM IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER TEENS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S F...AND WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY OVERLAP RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING EARLY TO MID MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN SRN IL/IND AND WRN KY... AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS /AROUND 15 MPH/ ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SERN MO AND SRN IL/IND. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION /PER GPS TPW GUIDANCE...WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.50 INCHES/...AND IS FORECAST TO MODIFY VERY LITTLE BY MONDAY. THUS...MIN RH VALUES FORECAST BY THE NAM IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER TEENS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S F...AND WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY OVERLAP RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING EARLY TO MID MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN SRN IL/IND AND WRN KY... AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS /AROUND 15 MPH/ ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SERN MO AND SRN IL/IND. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION /PER GPS TPW GUIDANCE...WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.50 INCHES/...AND IS FORECAST TO MODIFY VERY LITTLE BY MONDAY. THUS...MIN RH VALUES FORECAST BY THE NAM IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER TEENS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S F...AND WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1142 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INDICATE CRITICALLY STRONG SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS MAY BRIEFLY OVERLAP RH VALUES AOB 20 PERCENT ALONG THE FRONT RANGE AND ADJACENT HIGH PLAINS DURING EARLY TO MID MONDAY AFTERNOON...BEFORE WEAKENING BY LATE AFTERNOON. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE DURATION OF CRITICAL CONDITIONS...AN OUTLOOK AREA WILL NOT BE ISSUED ATTM. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN SRN IL/IND AND WRN KY... AS AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS ON MONDAY...SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE MID SOUTH REGION. THE STRONGEST SPEEDS /AROUND 15 MPH/ ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO RESIDE OVER SERN MO AND SRN IL/IND. MEANWHILE...VERY DRY AIR CURRENTLY RESIDES ACROSS THE REGION /PER GPS TPW GUIDANCE...WITH PWAT VALUES AOB 0.50 INCHES/...AND IS FORECAST TO MODIFY VERY LITTLE BY MONDAY. THUS...MIN RH VALUES FORECAST BY THE NAM IN THE 20S TO PERHAPS UPPER TEENS APPEARS PLAUSIBLE AS AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S F...AND WILL SUPPORT NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ACROSS THE AREA. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DEEP LAYER W-SWLY WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH SURFACE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE. OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TOWARD 15 PERCENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TRAILING S-SWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THE 12Z AMA AND DDC RAOBS MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /AOB 20 PERCENT/...AND S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH/ ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...SRN CA DESERTS... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...NJ/SERN PA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DEEP LAYER W-SWLY WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH SURFACE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE. OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TOWARD 15 PERCENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TRAILING S-SWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THE 12Z AMA AND DDC RAOBS MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /AOB 20 PERCENT/...AND S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH/ ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...SRN CA DESERTS... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...NJ/SERN PA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DEEP LAYER W-SWLY WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH SURFACE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE. OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TOWARD 15 PERCENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TRAILING S-SWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THE 12Z AMA AND DDC RAOBS MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /AOB 20 PERCENT/...AND S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH/ ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...SRN CA DESERTS... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...NJ/SERN PA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DEEP LAYER W-SWLY WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH SURFACE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE. OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TOWARD 15 PERCENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TRAILING S-SWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THE 12Z AMA AND DDC RAOBS MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /AOB 20 PERCENT/...AND S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH/ ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...SRN CA DESERTS... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...NJ/SERN PA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DEEP LAYER W-SWLY WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH SURFACE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE. OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TOWARD 15 PERCENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TRAILING S-SWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THE 12Z AMA AND DDC RAOBS MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /AOB 20 PERCENT/...AND S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH/ ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...SRN CA DESERTS... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...NJ/SERN PA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DEEP LAYER W-SWLY WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH SURFACE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE. OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TOWARD 15 PERCENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TRAILING S-SWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THE 12Z AMA AND DDC RAOBS MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /AOB 20 PERCENT/...AND S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH/ ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...SRN CA DESERTS... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...NJ/SERN PA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DEEP LAYER W-SWLY WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH SURFACE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE. OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TOWARD 15 PERCENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TRAILING S-SWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THE 12Z AMA AND DDC RAOBS MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /AOB 20 PERCENT/...AND S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH/ ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...SRN CA DESERTS... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...NJ/SERN PA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DEEP LAYER W-SWLY WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH SURFACE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE. OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TOWARD 15 PERCENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TRAILING S-SWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THE 12Z AMA AND DDC RAOBS MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /AOB 20 PERCENT/...AND S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH/ ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...SRN CA DESERTS... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...NJ/SERN PA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DEEP LAYER W-SWLY WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH SURFACE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE. OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TOWARD 15 PERCENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TRAILING S-SWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THE 12Z AMA AND DDC RAOBS MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /AOB 20 PERCENT/...AND S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH/ ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...SRN CA DESERTS... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...NJ/SERN PA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1135 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051700Z - 061200Z ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OBSERVED IN WV IMAGERY IS MOVING SWD ACROSS OREGON THIS MORNING...AND IS FORECAST TO DIG SEWD ACROSS THE NRN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. AS THIS OCCURS...STRONG DEEP LAYER W-SWLY WIND FIELDS WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...WITH SURFACE WIND SPEEDS INCREASING TO 20-30 MPH. IN ADDITION...12Z RAOBS ACROSS THE CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA SUPPORT AFTERNOON RH VALUES IN THE 5-15 PERCENT RANGE. OVER NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...POST FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT IS STILL ADVERTISED BY MODEL GUIDANCE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WHICH WILL SUPPORT CRITICALLY STRONG WIND SPEEDS AND THE ADVECTION OF DRIER AIR INTO THE REGION...WITH RH VALUES FALLING TOWARD 15 PERCENT DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. ...PORTIONS OF THE ERN TX AND OK PANHANDLES/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... THE PREVIOUS FORECAST APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DEEPEN OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AHEAD OF AN UPPER DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A SURFACE TROUGH AXIS TRAILING S-SWWD ACROSS WRN KS AND INTO THE CNTRL TX PANHANDLE. THE 12Z AMA AND DDC RAOBS MODIFIED FOR AFTERNOON CONDITIONS SUPPORT CRITICALLY LOW RH VALUES /AOB 20 PERCENT/...AND S-SWLY WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 20-25 MPH /WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30-40 MPH/ ALONG AND E OF THE SURFACE TROUGH. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...SRN CA DESERTS... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ...NJ/SERN PA... NO CHANGES MADE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0320 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...SYNOPSIS... AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NW WILL PROGRESS E/SEWD TOWARDS THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES THROUGH EARLY MON. A BELT OF STRONG MID-LEVEL WLYS /FROM 50 TO 70 MPH AT 500 MB/ WILL BECOME CENTERED ACROSS NRN NV/SRN ID INTO WY THIS AFTERNOON. AT THE SURFACE...A SHARP COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH TIGHT THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRADIENTS DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE. ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS...LEE CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR INVOF NERN CO WITH A DRYLINE MIXING EWD ACROSS WRN KS/OK/TX. ...MOST OF THE CNTRL/ERN GREAT BASIN TO THE CNTRL ROCKIES... WIDESPREAD CRITICAL CONDITIONS APPEAR PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY EVENING OVER MUCH OF THE ERN GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES AHEAD OF A SHARP COLD FRONT. SUSTAINED SURFACE W/SWLYS WILL INCREASE TO 20 TO 30 MPH...WITH AREAS OF WIND GUSTS AOA 40 MPH FROM SRN UT INTO SRN WY. THESE STRONG WINDS WILL COINCIDE WITH AN ANTECEDENT VERY WARM/DRY AIR MASS /RH VALUES OF 5 TO 15 PERCENT/. FARTHER NW ACROSS NERN NV/NWRN UT/SRN ID...STRONG SURFACE WINDS /FROM 20 TO 30 MPH/ WILL DEVELOP AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS THE POST-FRONTAL PRESSURE GRADIENT STRENGTHENS. DESPITE COOLING TEMPERATURES WITH WINDS VEERING TO THE N/NW AND MARGINAL AFTERNOON RH VALUES /AROUND 15 TO 20 PERCENT/...CONSENSUS OF MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTS RH RECOVERY WILL INITIALLY BE POOR DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS GUSTS AOA 30 MPH CONTINUE. ...A SMALL PORTION OF THE ERN TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK/SWRN KS... LEE CYCLOGENESIS OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL AID IN THE MAINTENANCE OF A 35 TO 45 MPH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FROM WRN OK TO THE MID-MO VALLEY. AS A HOT/STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SPREADS EWD ACROSS THE TX/OK PANHANDLES AND SWRN KS...A NARROW CORRIDOR OF JUXTAPOSITION WITH THE STRONG LOW-LEVEL WINDS SHOULD OCCUR. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED SUFFICIENTLY TO HIGHLIGHT THE MOST LIKELY CORRIDOR TO EXPERIENCE 20 TO 25 MPH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AND RH VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 20 PERCENT...WHERE RECENT RAINFALL HAS BEEN LACKING. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... A HIGHLY LOCALIZED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. NLY WINDS WILL INCREASE AS LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENTS TIGHTEN WITH A RIDGE AXIS BUILDING INTO THE PACIFIC NW. AREAS OF SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS BECOMING MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/ WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 30 MPH SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG THE HIGHER TERRAIN SURROUNDING THE NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY. THIS WOULD BE INITIALLY JUXTAPOSED WITH LOW RH VALUES OF 6 TO 12 PERCENT...AND POOR RH RECOVERY IS EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. ...SRN CA DESERTS... A RELATIVELY SHORT DURATION OF MARGINAL TO LOCALIZED CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS SHOULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. AS WLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD APPROACH 20 MPH FOR A FEW HOURS IN THE MIDST OF RH VALUES OF 4 TO 8 PERCENT. ...NJ/SERN PA... LOW-LEVEL WLY FLOW WILL PROMOTE SURFACE RH VALUES AGAIN FALLING TO AROUND 30 PERCENT THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...THIS FLOW WILL BE SUBSTANTIALLY WEAKER COMPARED TO SAT AND SHOULD RESULT IN SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS LARGELY REMAINING AOB 10 MPH. ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/05/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/05/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/05/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/05/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/05/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/05/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/05/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/05/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1630Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/05/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051630Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. ..THOMPSON/HURLBUT.. 09/05/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN MT/NRN WY INTO THE NRN PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF WRN CANADA/NWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESS FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN NOTABLE HEIGHT FALLS --I.E. 50-100 M/12 H-- SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND UNDERGO DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING ESEWD TO CNTRL NEB BY MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SRN PARTS OF MT IN ADVANCE OF WEAKER MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION PRECEDING PRIMARY SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...THOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. MORE INTENSE...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SRN/ERN PARTS OF MT INTO NRN WY AS STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD REGION. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH PW VALUES AOB ONE INCH AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. HOWEVER... THE PRESENCE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL YIELD MODEST DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING EPISODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ WITH A RISK FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS ONGOING ALONG COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RESULTING MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE AND THE NECESSITY FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ..MEAD/GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN MT/NRN WY INTO THE NRN PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF WRN CANADA/NWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESS FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN NOTABLE HEIGHT FALLS --I.E. 50-100 M/12 H-- SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND UNDERGO DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING ESEWD TO CNTRL NEB BY MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SRN PARTS OF MT IN ADVANCE OF WEAKER MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION PRECEDING PRIMARY SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...THOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. MORE INTENSE...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SRN/ERN PARTS OF MT INTO NRN WY AS STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD REGION. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH PW VALUES AOB ONE INCH AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. HOWEVER... THE PRESENCE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL YIELD MODEST DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING EPISODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ WITH A RISK FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS ONGOING ALONG COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RESULTING MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE AND THE NECESSITY FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ..MEAD/GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN MT/NRN WY INTO THE NRN PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF WRN CANADA/NWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESS FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN NOTABLE HEIGHT FALLS --I.E. 50-100 M/12 H-- SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND UNDERGO DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING ESEWD TO CNTRL NEB BY MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SRN PARTS OF MT IN ADVANCE OF WEAKER MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION PRECEDING PRIMARY SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...THOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. MORE INTENSE...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SRN/ERN PARTS OF MT INTO NRN WY AS STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD REGION. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH PW VALUES AOB ONE INCH AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. HOWEVER... THE PRESENCE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL YIELD MODEST DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING EPISODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ WITH A RISK FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS ONGOING ALONG COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RESULTING MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE AND THE NECESSITY FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ..MEAD/GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN MT/NRN WY INTO THE NRN PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF WRN CANADA/NWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESS FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN NOTABLE HEIGHT FALLS --I.E. 50-100 M/12 H-- SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND UNDERGO DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING ESEWD TO CNTRL NEB BY MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SRN PARTS OF MT IN ADVANCE OF WEAKER MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION PRECEDING PRIMARY SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...THOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. MORE INTENSE...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SRN/ERN PARTS OF MT INTO NRN WY AS STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD REGION. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH PW VALUES AOB ONE INCH AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. HOWEVER... THE PRESENCE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL YIELD MODEST DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING EPISODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ WITH A RISK FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS ONGOING ALONG COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RESULTING MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE AND THE NECESSITY FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ..MEAD/GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1300Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN MT/NRN WY INTO THE NRN PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF WRN CANADA/NWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESS FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN NOTABLE HEIGHT FALLS --I.E. 50-100 M/12 H-- SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND UNDERGO DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING ESEWD TO CNTRL NEB BY MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SRN PARTS OF MT IN ADVANCE OF WEAKER MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION PRECEDING PRIMARY SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...THOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. MORE INTENSE...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SRN/ERN PARTS OF MT INTO NRN WY AS STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD REGION. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH PW VALUES AOB ONE INCH AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. HOWEVER... THE PRESENCE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL YIELD MODEST DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING EPISODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ WITH A RISK FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS ONGOING ALONG COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RESULTING MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE AND THE NECESSITY FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ..MEAD/GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0723 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 051300Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SRN MT/NRN WY INTO THE NRN PLAINS... CONSIDERABLE AMPLIFICATION OF WRN CANADA/NWRN CONUS UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST THIS PERIOD AS POTENT VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ASSOCIATED 50-60 KT MIDLEVEL JET STREAK PROGRESS FROM THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THIS LARGE-SCALE PATTERN EVOLUTION WILL RESULT IN NOTABLE HEIGHT FALLS --I.E. 50-100 M/12 H-- SPREADING ESEWD THROUGH THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION INTO NRN HIGH PLAINS. AT THE SURFACE...BROAD LEE CYCLONE NOW OVER WRN PARTS OF SD/NEB IS FORECAST TO CONSOLIDATE AND UNDERGO DEEPENING WHILE DEVELOPING ESEWD TO CNTRL NEB BY MONDAY MORNING. MEANWHILE...A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SEWD THROUGH THE NRN HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS AND WRN NEB. CLUSTERS OF TSTMS HAVE PERSISTED EARLY THIS MORNING OVER SRN PARTS OF MT IN ADVANCE OF WEAKER MIDLEVEL PERTURBATION PRECEDING PRIMARY SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE. SOME SMALL HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING...THOUGH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED. MORE INTENSE...DIURNALLY-ENHANCED STORMS ARE FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON ALONG COLD FRONT FROM SRN/ERN PARTS OF MT INTO NRN WY AS STRONGER DYNAMIC FORCING ATTENDANT TO AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD REGION. PRE-FRONTAL AIR MASS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER DRY WITH PW VALUES AOB ONE INCH AND BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS IN THE 40S. HOWEVER... THE PRESENCE OF A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT WILL YIELD MODEST DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE WITH MLCAPE APPROACHING 500-1000 J/KG. WHEN COUPLED WITH 40-50 KT OF DEEP WLY SHEAR...SETUP WILL FAVOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING EPISODIC SUPERCELL STRUCTURES/ WITH A RISK FOR SPORADIC DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL. AN ISOLATED WIND/HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP EWD INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS TONIGHT IN ASSOCIATION WITH TSTMS ONGOING ALONG COLD FRONT. CURRENTLY...IT APPEARS THAT THE LIMITED MOISTURE AVAILABILITY AND RESULTING MARGINAL CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY WILL PRECLUDE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE AND THE NECESSITY FOR A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK. ..MEAD/GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 2 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0447 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PROGRESS EWD FROM THE NRN HIGH PLAINS/CNTRL ROCKIES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH EARLY TUE. ATTENDANT SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS WILL MOVE NEWD TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...WHILE A COLD FRONT PUSHES SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE OK/TX PANHANDLES BY MON EVENING. FARTHER WEST...AN UPSTREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ALONG THE BRITISH COLUMBIA/PACIFIC NW COAST. ...SERN WY/N-CNTRL CO E/SEWD ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS... BELOW-AVERAGE CONFIDENCE EXISTS WITH BOTH THE TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONG WINDS WITH LOW RH ON MON...DEFERRING ANY CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION TO LATER OUTLOOKS. A SURGE OF STRONG LOW-LEVEL N/NWLYS SHOULD ACCOMPANY FRONTAL PASSAGE MON MORNING...WITH WINDS WEAKENING DURING THE AFTERNOON AS RIDGING QUICKLY BUILDS ALONG THE LEE OF THE NRN/CNTRL ROCKIES. DURATION OF STRONG WINDS APPEARS TOO MARGINAL TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA...WHERE DRYING SHOULD BE MOST PRONOUNCED ALONG THE LEE OF THE FRONT RANGE. FARTHER EAST INTO WRN NEB/KS...LONGER DURATIONS OF STRONG WINDS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BUT WITH INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. ...SERN MO...NERN AR...FAR WRN TN NEWD ALONG THE LOWER OH VALLEY... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT SHOULD DEVELOP MON AFTERNOON AS SLY SURFACE WINDS INCREASE WITHIN AN ANTECEDENT DRY AIR MASS ACROSS THE LOWER MS/OH VALLEY. MODEL FORECASTS ARE HIGHLY CONSISTENT THAT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 80S WITH RH VALUES DROPPING TO BETWEEN 18 AND 25 PERCENT. ALTHOUGH S/SWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN...THE REGION OF LOW RH VALUES SHOULD REMAIN TO THE E/SE OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL FLOW CENTERED OVER THE MID-MO VALLEY. SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /NEAR 15 MPH/. GIVEN MODERATE DROUGHT AND RECENT BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE REGION...A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION MAY BECOME NECESSARY IF STRONGER WINDS ARE APPARENT IN LATER FORECASTS. ...NRN SACRAMENTO VALLEY IN NRN CA... AREAS OF POOR RH RECOVERY MAY BE ONGOING EARLY MON GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF LOCALLY GUSTY NLY WINDS. HOWEVER...THESE WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE LOW-LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES DURING THE LATE MORNING. WINDS WILL REMAIN WEAK THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BREAKS DOWN ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WITH APPROACH OF AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH FROM BRITISH COLUMBIA. ..GRAMS.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
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