SPC Sep 6, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN/WRN WI/IA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW -- INITIALLY OVER MT/WY/CO -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY ENEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SUBSTANTIAL CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/N CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FROM NEB INTO SRN MN THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN INTO THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 07/12. THIS LOW -- AND THE ASSOCIATED SWWD-TRAILING COLD FRONT -- SHOULD FOCUS A LINE OF VIGOROUS/SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...T.D. 10 IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NNWWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD S TX -- POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. ...SRN MN AND PARTS OF WI SWWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION... CAPPING LAYER OF WARM AIR IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LEVEL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A DEEPENING CYCLONE SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND INTO SRN MN. COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CAPE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THE WARM LAYER...WHILE FLOW FIELD THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE STRENGTHENS. AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROBUST/COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM -- FOCUSED AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT -- SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE ERN SD/SRN MN/IA VICINITY...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO/KS. WHILE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA -- FEATURING SUBSTANTIAL VEERING/STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT -- WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...LINEAR FORCING AND DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR CAPPING SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...GROWING UPSCALE INTO A MORE LINEAR CONFIGURATION RATHER QUICKLY AFTER INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS -- WHILE SOME TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS IA AND NWD/NWWD TO THE N OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT WHERE ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST...MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY BE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE FRONT...STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ACROSS KS AND VICINITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS VIGOROUS GIVEN WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES. STILL...ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND GRADUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CAPPING...A DECREASING TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. ...COASTAL SRN/SERN TX... TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10 HAS FORMED IN THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH S TX LATER IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD COULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/06/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN/WRN WI/IA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW -- INITIALLY OVER MT/WY/CO -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY ENEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SUBSTANTIAL CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/N CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FROM NEB INTO SRN MN THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN INTO THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 07/12. THIS LOW -- AND THE ASSOCIATED SWWD-TRAILING COLD FRONT -- SHOULD FOCUS A LINE OF VIGOROUS/SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...T.D. 10 IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NNWWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD S TX -- POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. ...SRN MN AND PARTS OF WI SWWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION... CAPPING LAYER OF WARM AIR IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LEVEL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A DEEPENING CYCLONE SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND INTO SRN MN. COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CAPE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THE WARM LAYER...WHILE FLOW FIELD THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE STRENGTHENS. AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROBUST/COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM -- FOCUSED AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT -- SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE ERN SD/SRN MN/IA VICINITY...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO/KS. WHILE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA -- FEATURING SUBSTANTIAL VEERING/STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT -- WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...LINEAR FORCING AND DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR CAPPING SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...GROWING UPSCALE INTO A MORE LINEAR CONFIGURATION RATHER QUICKLY AFTER INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS -- WHILE SOME TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS IA AND NWD/NWWD TO THE N OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT WHERE ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST...MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY BE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE FRONT...STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ACROSS KS AND VICINITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS VIGOROUS GIVEN WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES. STILL...ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND GRADUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CAPPING...A DECREASING TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. ...COASTAL SRN/SERN TX... TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10 HAS FORMED IN THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH S TX LATER IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD COULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/06/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 6, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN/WRN WI/IA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW -- INITIALLY OVER MT/WY/CO -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY ENEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SUBSTANTIAL CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/N CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FROM NEB INTO SRN MN THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN INTO THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 07/12. THIS LOW -- AND THE ASSOCIATED SWWD-TRAILING COLD FRONT -- SHOULD FOCUS A LINE OF VIGOROUS/SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...T.D. 10 IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NNWWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD S TX -- POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. ...SRN MN AND PARTS OF WI SWWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION... CAPPING LAYER OF WARM AIR IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LEVEL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A DEEPENING CYCLONE SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND INTO SRN MN. COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CAPE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THE WARM LAYER...WHILE FLOW FIELD THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE STRENGTHENS. AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROBUST/COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM -- FOCUSED AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT -- SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE ERN SD/SRN MN/IA VICINITY...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO/KS. WHILE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA -- FEATURING SUBSTANTIAL VEERING/STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT -- WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...LINEAR FORCING AND DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR CAPPING SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...GROWING UPSCALE INTO A MORE LINEAR CONFIGURATION RATHER QUICKLY AFTER INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS -- WHILE SOME TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS IA AND NWD/NWWD TO THE N OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT WHERE ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST...MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY BE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE FRONT...STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ACROSS KS AND VICINITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS VIGOROUS GIVEN WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES. STILL...ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND GRADUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CAPPING...A DECREASING TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. ...COASTAL SRN/SERN TX... TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10 HAS FORMED IN THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH S TX LATER IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD COULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/06/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1237 AM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN MN/WRN WI/IA... ...SYNOPSIS... MID-LEVEL TROUGH/LOW -- INITIALLY OVER MT/WY/CO -- IS FORECAST TO SHIFT QUICKLY ENEWD WITH TIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NRN PLAINS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN INTO/ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...SUBSTANTIAL CYCLOGENESIS IS FORECAST ACROSS THE CENTRAL/N CENTRAL CONUS...WITH THE LOW SHIFTING FROM NEB INTO SRN MN THROUGH THE DAY...AND THEN INTO THE WRN UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 07/12. THIS LOW -- AND THE ASSOCIATED SWWD-TRAILING COLD FRONT -- SHOULD FOCUS A LINE OF VIGOROUS/SEVERE STORMS FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ELSEWHERE...T.D. 10 IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NNWWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO TOWARD S TX -- POSSIBLY STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL STORM LEVELS DURING THE PERIOD. ...SRN MN AND PARTS OF WI SWWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY REGION... CAPPING LAYER OF WARM AIR IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LEVEL IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A DEEPENING CYCLONE SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY AND INTO SRN MN. COOLING ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SOME CAPE DEVELOPMENT ABOVE THE WARM LAYER...WHILE FLOW FIELD THROUGH THE LOWER HALF OF THE TROPOSPHERE STRENGTHENS. AFOREMENTIONED CAPPING SHOULD SUPPRESS DEEP CONVECTION FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...STRONG UVV ASSOCIATED WITH THE ROBUST/COMPACT UPPER SYSTEM -- FOCUSED AT THE SURFACE NEAR THE LOW AND ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT -- SHOULD EVENTUALLY ALLOW STORMS TO DEVELOP IN THE ERN SD/SRN MN/IA VICINITY...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS NWRN MO/KS. WHILE WIND PROFILES ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA -- FEATURING SUBSTANTIAL VEERING/STRENGTHENING WITH HEIGHT -- WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...LINEAR FORCING AND DEGREE OF WARM SECTOR CAPPING SUGGEST THAT CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN CONFINED TO THE IMMEDIATE FRONTAL ZONE...GROWING UPSCALE INTO A MORE LINEAR CONFIGURATION RATHER QUICKLY AFTER INITIAL STORM DEVELOPMENT. THUS -- WHILE SOME TORNADO THREAT APPEARS TO EXIST ACROSS IA AND NWD/NWWD TO THE N OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT WHERE ELY/SELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL EXIST...MAIN THREATS WILL LIKELY BE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS. FARTHER SWWD ALONG THE FRONT...STORMS WHICH DEVELOP ACROSS KS AND VICINITY WILL LIKELY REMAIN LESS VIGOROUS GIVEN WEAKER SHEAR PROFILES. STILL...ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS COULD PRODUCING BRIEF GUSTY WINDS AND/OR MARGINAL HAIL. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING ALONG THE ADVANCING FRONT...BUT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING AND GRADUAL REDEVELOPMENT OF CAPPING...A DECREASING TREND IN STORM ACTIVITY AND ASSOCIATED SEVERE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED. ...COASTAL SRN/SERN TX... TROPICAL DEPRESSION #10 HAS FORMED IN THE SWRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND IS FORECAST TO APPROACH S TX LATER IN THE DAY 1 PERIOD. AS THIS OCCURS...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD COULD EVENTUALLY SUPPORT WEAK UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH STRONGER CELLS WITHIN THE CONVECTIVE BANDS SURROUNDING THIS SYSTEM. THEREFORE...WILL MAINTAIN LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS AREA. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/06/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 6, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A FEW VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF MT...WITHIN MINIMALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A STRONG/ADVANCING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OVERNIGHT...ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. WHILE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR...A STRONGER CELL OR TWO WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/06/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A FEW VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF MT...WITHIN MINIMALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A STRONG/ADVANCING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OVERNIGHT...ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. WHILE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR...A STRONGER CELL OR TWO WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/06/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 6, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A FEW VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF MT...WITHIN MINIMALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A STRONG/ADVANCING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OVERNIGHT...ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. WHILE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR...A STRONGER CELL OR TWO WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/06/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A FEW VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF MT...WITHIN MINIMALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A STRONG/ADVANCING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OVERNIGHT...ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. WHILE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR...A STRONGER CELL OR TWO WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/06/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 6, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A FEW VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF MT...WITHIN MINIMALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A STRONG/ADVANCING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OVERNIGHT...ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. WHILE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR...A STRONGER CELL OR TWO WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/06/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0757 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 060100Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE NWRN QUARTER OF THE CONUS THIS PERIOD...WITH DOWNSTREAM CYCLOGENESIS TO CONTINUE OVER THE PLAINS. ELSEWHERE...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... A FEW VIGOROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING ACROSS THE SERN QUARTER OF MT...WITHIN MINIMALLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS AHEAD OF A STRONG/ADVANCING UPPER SHORT-WAVE TROUGH. AS THE TROUGH CONTINUES DIGGING ESEWD ACROSS THE NRN INTERMOUNTAIN REGION OVERNIGHT...ONGOING SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD SPREAD EWD INTO THE DAKOTAS. WHILE DEGREE OF INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN A LIMITING FACTOR...A STRONGER CELL OR TWO WILL REMAIN CAPABLE OF PRODUCING MARGINAL HAIL/GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THIS REGION INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. ..GOSS.. 09/06/2010 Read more
SPC - No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 5 21:44:01 UTC 2010
No watches are valid as of Sun Sep 5 21:44:01 UTC 2010.
SPC - No MDs are in effect as of Sun Sep 5 21:44:01 UTC 2010
No Mesoscale Discussions are in effect as of Sun Sep 5 21:44:01 UTC 2010.
SPC Sep 5, 2010 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS N CNTRL MT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BENEATH VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 C. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. FARTHER E...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS INCREASING ACROSS SWRN MT/NWRN WY...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE FRONT DEEPENS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER WITH A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL AS IT TREKS EWD ACROSS SRN/ERN MT...FAR NRN WY...AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS N CNTRL MT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BENEATH VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 C. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. FARTHER E...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS INCREASING ACROSS SWRN MT/NWRN WY...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE FRONT DEEPENS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER WITH A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL AS IT TREKS EWD ACROSS SRN/ERN MT...FAR NRN WY...AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS N CNTRL MT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BENEATH VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 C. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. FARTHER E...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS INCREASING ACROSS SWRN MT/NWRN WY...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE FRONT DEEPENS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER WITH A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL AS IT TREKS EWD ACROSS SRN/ERN MT...FAR NRN WY...AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS N CNTRL MT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BENEATH VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 C. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. FARTHER E...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS INCREASING ACROSS SWRN MT/NWRN WY...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE FRONT DEEPENS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER WITH A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL AS IT TREKS EWD ACROSS SRN/ERN MT...FAR NRN WY...AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS N CNTRL MT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BENEATH VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 C. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. FARTHER E...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS INCREASING ACROSS SWRN MT/NWRN WY...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE FRONT DEEPENS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER WITH A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL AS IT TREKS EWD ACROSS SRN/ERN MT...FAR NRN WY...AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS N CNTRL MT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BENEATH VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 C. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. FARTHER E...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS INCREASING ACROSS SWRN MT/NWRN WY...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE FRONT DEEPENS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER WITH A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL AS IT TREKS EWD ACROSS SRN/ERN MT...FAR NRN WY...AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 2000Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS N CNTRL MT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BENEATH VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 C. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. FARTHER E...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS INCREASING ACROSS SWRN MT/NWRN WY...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE FRONT DEEPENS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER WITH A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL AS IT TREKS EWD ACROSS SRN/ERN MT...FAR NRN WY...AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0254 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 052000Z - 061200Z ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...MT INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS... STORMS HAVE BEEN INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS N CNTRL MT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AND BENEATH VERY COOL AIR ALOFT WITH 500 MB TEMPERATURES AROUND -20 C. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AT TIMES...BUT INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK. FARTHER E...CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT IS INCREASING ACROSS SWRN MT/NWRN WY...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE IN STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS ANTICIPATED AS THE FRONT DEEPENS. ACTIVITY MAY EVOLVE INTO A CLUSTER WITH A THREAT OF STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND MARGINAL HAIL AS IT TREKS EWD ACROSS SRN/ERN MT...FAR NRN WY...AND INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010/ ...NRN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH TONIGHT... A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL MOVE ESEWD TO THE CENTRAL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT...WHILE DOWNSTREAM LEE CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS INVOF WRN NEB. SUBSTANTIAL MOISTENING HAS OCCURRED FROM IA NWWD INTO THE DAKOTAS IN THE ZONE WHERE LOW-MIDLEVEL WAA COINCIDES WITH THE MOISTURE PLUME ORIGINATING FROM THE NRN ROCKIES YESTERDAY. THIS MOISTENING IS ALSO OCCURRING ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE STEEPER LAPSE RATES AND WARMER EML...SUCH THAT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD. SOME SMALL HAIL CANNOT BE RULED OUT TONIGHT INVOF SE MN/NE IA/SW WI/NW IL...THOUGH ONLY WEAK MIDLEVEL INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT SEVERE HAIL IS IMPROBABLE. EVAPOTRANSPIRATION HAS CONTRIBUTED TO SKIN LAYER MOISTENING ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY OF NEB/IA/SD...BUT THE RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS CONFINED TO A STALLED FRONT ACROSS THE N/NW GULF OF MEXICO. CONTINUED EWD EXPANSION OF THE EML WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN A CAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER ACROSS THE LOWER PLAINS OF NEB/SD INTO IA...WITH THE ONLY POTENTIAL EXCEPTION BEING A SMALL CHANCE OF HIGH-BASED STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL NEB WHERE DEEP MIXING WILL LARGELY REMOVE CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. THE GREATER RISK FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT...HOWEVER...WILL BE FARTHER NW INTO S CENTRAL/SE M...NRN WY...AND WRN SD WHERE LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL BE STRONGEST ALONG A COLD FRONT AND IMMEDIATELY DOWNSTREAM FROM THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH. DESPITE SOMEWHAT LIMITED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS ONLY IN THE 40S/...AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S AND STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS AND SUPERCELLS...WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT. THE SOMEWHAT LIMITED INSTABILITY SUPPORTS MAINTAINING ONLY LOW WIND/HAIL PROBABILITIES. Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 071200Z - 131200Z SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE D3-8 PERIOD. ON TUESDAY/D3...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A 30 KT W-SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FAVORING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH OVER LWR MI...WITH RH VALUES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL AND QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING ASSIGNED ATTM. FARTHER S...SWLY WINDS UP TO 15 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION /PARTICULARLY IND AND OH/...WITH MIN RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE AN OUTLOOK AREA IN FUTURE FORECASTS. OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/D3 ACROSS MUCH OF NV AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SWD ALONG THE PAC COAST...WITH NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. A MORE PROBABLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THEN EMERGES ON WEDNESDAY/D4 OVER THE GREAT BASIN /ERN NV AND WRN UT/ AND NWRN AZ AS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE PAC TROUGH...PROMOTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OCCURRING IN THE MIDST OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 5-10 PERCENT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT E-NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY/D5...WHICH WILL AID IN SPREADING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND FIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED ON THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES WARM AND DRY...AND SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED. ON FRIDAY/D6...A DRY AND BREEZY POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE CYCLONE EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 071200Z - 131200Z SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE D3-8 PERIOD. ON TUESDAY/D3...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A 30 KT W-SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FAVORING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH OVER LWR MI...WITH RH VALUES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL AND QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING ASSIGNED ATTM. FARTHER S...SWLY WINDS UP TO 15 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION /PARTICULARLY IND AND OH/...WITH MIN RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE AN OUTLOOK AREA IN FUTURE FORECASTS. OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/D3 ACROSS MUCH OF NV AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SWD ALONG THE PAC COAST...WITH NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. A MORE PROBABLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THEN EMERGES ON WEDNESDAY/D4 OVER THE GREAT BASIN /ERN NV AND WRN UT/ AND NWRN AZ AS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE PAC TROUGH...PROMOTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OCCURRING IN THE MIDST OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 5-10 PERCENT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT E-NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY/D5...WHICH WILL AID IN SPREADING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND FIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED ON THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES WARM AND DRY...AND SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED. ON FRIDAY/D6...A DRY AND BREEZY POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE CYCLONE EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 071200Z - 131200Z SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE D3-8 PERIOD. ON TUESDAY/D3...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A 30 KT W-SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FAVORING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH OVER LWR MI...WITH RH VALUES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL AND QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING ASSIGNED ATTM. FARTHER S...SWLY WINDS UP TO 15 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION /PARTICULARLY IND AND OH/...WITH MIN RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE AN OUTLOOK AREA IN FUTURE FORECASTS. OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/D3 ACROSS MUCH OF NV AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SWD ALONG THE PAC COAST...WITH NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. A MORE PROBABLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THEN EMERGES ON WEDNESDAY/D4 OVER THE GREAT BASIN /ERN NV AND WRN UT/ AND NWRN AZ AS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE PAC TROUGH...PROMOTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OCCURRING IN THE MIDST OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 5-10 PERCENT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT E-NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY/D5...WHICH WILL AID IN SPREADING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND FIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED ON THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES WARM AND DRY...AND SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED. ON FRIDAY/D6...A DRY AND BREEZY POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE CYCLONE EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 071200Z - 131200Z SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE D3-8 PERIOD. ON TUESDAY/D3...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A 30 KT W-SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FAVORING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH OVER LWR MI...WITH RH VALUES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL AND QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING ASSIGNED ATTM. FARTHER S...SWLY WINDS UP TO 15 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION /PARTICULARLY IND AND OH/...WITH MIN RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE AN OUTLOOK AREA IN FUTURE FORECASTS. OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/D3 ACROSS MUCH OF NV AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SWD ALONG THE PAC COAST...WITH NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. A MORE PROBABLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THEN EMERGES ON WEDNESDAY/D4 OVER THE GREAT BASIN /ERN NV AND WRN UT/ AND NWRN AZ AS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE PAC TROUGH...PROMOTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OCCURRING IN THE MIDST OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 5-10 PERCENT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT E-NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY/D5...WHICH WILL AID IN SPREADING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND FIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED ON THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES WARM AND DRY...AND SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED. ON FRIDAY/D6...A DRY AND BREEZY POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE CYCLONE EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 071200Z - 131200Z SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE D3-8 PERIOD. ON TUESDAY/D3...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A 30 KT W-SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FAVORING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH OVER LWR MI...WITH RH VALUES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL AND QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING ASSIGNED ATTM. FARTHER S...SWLY WINDS UP TO 15 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION /PARTICULARLY IND AND OH/...WITH MIN RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE AN OUTLOOK AREA IN FUTURE FORECASTS. OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/D3 ACROSS MUCH OF NV AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SWD ALONG THE PAC COAST...WITH NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. A MORE PROBABLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THEN EMERGES ON WEDNESDAY/D4 OVER THE GREAT BASIN /ERN NV AND WRN UT/ AND NWRN AZ AS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE PAC TROUGH...PROMOTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OCCURRING IN THE MIDST OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 5-10 PERCENT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT E-NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY/D5...WHICH WILL AID IN SPREADING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND FIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED ON THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES WARM AND DRY...AND SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED. ON FRIDAY/D6...A DRY AND BREEZY POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE CYCLONE EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 071200Z - 131200Z SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE D3-8 PERIOD. ON TUESDAY/D3...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A 30 KT W-SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FAVORING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH OVER LWR MI...WITH RH VALUES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL AND QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING ASSIGNED ATTM. FARTHER S...SWLY WINDS UP TO 15 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION /PARTICULARLY IND AND OH/...WITH MIN RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE AN OUTLOOK AREA IN FUTURE FORECASTS. OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/D3 ACROSS MUCH OF NV AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SWD ALONG THE PAC COAST...WITH NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. A MORE PROBABLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THEN EMERGES ON WEDNESDAY/D4 OVER THE GREAT BASIN /ERN NV AND WRN UT/ AND NWRN AZ AS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE PAC TROUGH...PROMOTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OCCURRING IN THE MIDST OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 5-10 PERCENT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT E-NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY/D5...WHICH WILL AID IN SPREADING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND FIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED ON THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES WARM AND DRY...AND SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED. ON FRIDAY/D6...A DRY AND BREEZY POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE CYCLONE EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 071200Z - 131200Z SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE D3-8 PERIOD. ON TUESDAY/D3...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A 30 KT W-SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FAVORING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH OVER LWR MI...WITH RH VALUES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL AND QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING ASSIGNED ATTM. FARTHER S...SWLY WINDS UP TO 15 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION /PARTICULARLY IND AND OH/...WITH MIN RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE AN OUTLOOK AREA IN FUTURE FORECASTS. OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/D3 ACROSS MUCH OF NV AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SWD ALONG THE PAC COAST...WITH NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. A MORE PROBABLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THEN EMERGES ON WEDNESDAY/D4 OVER THE GREAT BASIN /ERN NV AND WRN UT/ AND NWRN AZ AS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE PAC TROUGH...PROMOTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OCCURRING IN THE MIDST OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 5-10 PERCENT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT E-NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY/D5...WHICH WILL AID IN SPREADING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND FIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED ON THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES WARM AND DRY...AND SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED. ON FRIDAY/D6...A DRY AND BREEZY POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE CYCLONE EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 3-8 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0224 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 071200Z - 131200Z SOMEWHAT ACTIVE FIRE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF THE D3-8 PERIOD. ON TUESDAY/D3...AN UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING SWWD ACROSS THE MIDWESTERN STATES. A 30 KT W-SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET WILL RESIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE FRONT...FAVORING SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS AS HIGH AS 25 MPH OVER LWR MI...WITH RH VALUES POSSIBLY FALLING INTO THE 20S. HOWEVER...RECENT RAINFALL AND QUESTIONABLE FUEL CONDITIONS WILL PRECLUDE A CRITICAL OUTLOOK AREA FROM BEING ASSIGNED ATTM. FARTHER S...SWLY WINDS UP TO 15 MPH ARE PROBABLE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY REGION /PARTICULARLY IND AND OH/...WITH MIN RH VALUES APPROACHING CRITICAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE AN OUTLOOK AREA IN FUTURE FORECASTS. OVER THE GREAT BASIN...WIND SPEEDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE ON TUESDAY/D3 ACROSS MUCH OF NV AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SWD ALONG THE PAC COAST...WITH NEAR TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS EVIDENT IN THE LATEST MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE. A MORE PROBABLE CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER EVENT THEN EMERGES ON WEDNESDAY/D4 OVER THE GREAT BASIN /ERN NV AND WRN UT/ AND NWRN AZ AS WINDS STRENGTHEN FURTHER AHEAD OF THE PAC TROUGH...PROMOTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS OF 25 MPH OCCURRING IN THE MIDST OF A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER AIR MASS WITH RH VALUES AS LOW AS 5-10 PERCENT. THE UPPER TROUGH IS THEN FORECAST TO EJECT E-NEWD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON THURSDAY/D5...WHICH WILL AID IN SPREADING DRIER AIR ACROSS THE CNTRL ROCKIES. GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AND FIRE STARTS DUE TO LIGHTNING OVER THE ROCKIES ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...WILDFIRE POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED ON THURSDAY AS THE AIR MASS BECOMES WARM AND DRY...AND SWLY WINDS INCREASE IN SPEED. ON FRIDAY/D6...A DRY AND BREEZY POST FRONTAL AIR MASS IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH AND A SURFACE CYCLONE EJECT ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS. AS THIS SYSTEM EXITS...MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL TRANSITION TO QUASI-ZONAL...WHICH MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW WILDFIRE POTENTIAL TOWARD THE WEEKEND. ..GARNER.. 09/05/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEBRASKA INTO MN...BECOMING OCCLUDED OVER CNTRL/SRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG FORCING NEAR THE LOW...AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG THE FRONT FROM MO INTO SRN KS/NRN OK. ELSEWHERE...WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINGENT ON AT LEAST WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...IA...SRN MN...WRN WI... MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SD NEAR A DEEPENING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER SRN WI/NRN IL ALONG A WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE MOST OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 700 MB YIELDING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THUS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HAIL EARLY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT WWD TO THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARD TO THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND CAPPING. A STOUT EML WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CIN DECREASING ONLY ONCE THE STRONG FORCING ARRIVES. THUS...MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN STRONG FORCING ERODES THE CAP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL/SRN MN AND WRN WI. SRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF CNTRL IA IS MORE CONDITIONAL AS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND SUPERCELLS...EITHER SINGLE CELL OR EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR PROFILES...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT STORM COVERAGE AND QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBS AT THIS TIME. ...S TX... WHILE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS /SEE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION/. ASSUMING THIS IS WHAT OCCURS...AND USING THE NAM SOLUTION AS AN ENVIRONMENTAL PROXY...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS S TX AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VEERING AND HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WOULD MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY IN OTHERWISE WARM PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 Read more
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEBRASKA INTO MN...BECOMING OCCLUDED OVER CNTRL/SRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG FORCING NEAR THE LOW...AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG THE FRONT FROM MO INTO SRN KS/NRN OK. ELSEWHERE...WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINGENT ON AT LEAST WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...IA...SRN MN...WRN WI... MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SD NEAR A DEEPENING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER SRN WI/NRN IL ALONG A WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE MOST OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 700 MB YIELDING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THUS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HAIL EARLY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT WWD TO THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARD TO THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND CAPPING. A STOUT EML WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CIN DECREASING ONLY ONCE THE STRONG FORCING ARRIVES. THUS...MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN STRONG FORCING ERODES THE CAP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL/SRN MN AND WRN WI. SRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF CNTRL IA IS MORE CONDITIONAL AS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND SUPERCELLS...EITHER SINGLE CELL OR EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR PROFILES...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT STORM COVERAGE AND QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBS AT THIS TIME. ...S TX... WHILE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS /SEE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION/. ASSUMING THIS IS WHAT OCCURS...AND USING THE NAM SOLUTION AS AN ENVIRONMENTAL PROXY...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS S TX AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VEERING AND HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WOULD MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY IN OTHERWISE WARM PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEBRASKA INTO MN...BECOMING OCCLUDED OVER CNTRL/SRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG FORCING NEAR THE LOW...AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG THE FRONT FROM MO INTO SRN KS/NRN OK. ELSEWHERE...WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINGENT ON AT LEAST WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...IA...SRN MN...WRN WI... MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SD NEAR A DEEPENING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER SRN WI/NRN IL ALONG A WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE MOST OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 700 MB YIELDING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THUS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HAIL EARLY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT WWD TO THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARD TO THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND CAPPING. A STOUT EML WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CIN DECREASING ONLY ONCE THE STRONG FORCING ARRIVES. THUS...MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN STRONG FORCING ERODES THE CAP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL/SRN MN AND WRN WI. SRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF CNTRL IA IS MORE CONDITIONAL AS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND SUPERCELLS...EITHER SINGLE CELL OR EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR PROFILES...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT STORM COVERAGE AND QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBS AT THIS TIME. ...S TX... WHILE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS /SEE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION/. ASSUMING THIS IS WHAT OCCURS...AND USING THE NAM SOLUTION AS AN ENVIRONMENTAL PROXY...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS S TX AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VEERING AND HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WOULD MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY IN OTHERWISE WARM PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 Read more
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEBRASKA INTO MN...BECOMING OCCLUDED OVER CNTRL/SRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG FORCING NEAR THE LOW...AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG THE FRONT FROM MO INTO SRN KS/NRN OK. ELSEWHERE...WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINGENT ON AT LEAST WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...IA...SRN MN...WRN WI... MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SD NEAR A DEEPENING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER SRN WI/NRN IL ALONG A WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE MOST OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 700 MB YIELDING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THUS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HAIL EARLY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT WWD TO THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARD TO THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND CAPPING. A STOUT EML WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CIN DECREASING ONLY ONCE THE STRONG FORCING ARRIVES. THUS...MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN STRONG FORCING ERODES THE CAP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL/SRN MN AND WRN WI. SRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF CNTRL IA IS MORE CONDITIONAL AS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND SUPERCELLS...EITHER SINGLE CELL OR EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR PROFILES...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT STORM COVERAGE AND QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBS AT THIS TIME. ...S TX... WHILE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS /SEE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION/. ASSUMING THIS IS WHAT OCCURS...AND USING THE NAM SOLUTION AS AN ENVIRONMENTAL PROXY...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS S TX AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VEERING AND HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WOULD MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY IN OTHERWISE WARM PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEBRASKA INTO MN...BECOMING OCCLUDED OVER CNTRL/SRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG FORCING NEAR THE LOW...AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG THE FRONT FROM MO INTO SRN KS/NRN OK. ELSEWHERE...WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINGENT ON AT LEAST WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...IA...SRN MN...WRN WI... MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SD NEAR A DEEPENING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER SRN WI/NRN IL ALONG A WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE MOST OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 700 MB YIELDING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THUS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HAIL EARLY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT WWD TO THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARD TO THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND CAPPING. A STOUT EML WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CIN DECREASING ONLY ONCE THE STRONG FORCING ARRIVES. THUS...MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN STRONG FORCING ERODES THE CAP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL/SRN MN AND WRN WI. SRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF CNTRL IA IS MORE CONDITIONAL AS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND SUPERCELLS...EITHER SINGLE CELL OR EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR PROFILES...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT STORM COVERAGE AND QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBS AT THIS TIME. ...S TX... WHILE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS /SEE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION/. ASSUMING THIS IS WHAT OCCURS...AND USING THE NAM SOLUTION AS AN ENVIRONMENTAL PROXY...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS S TX AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VEERING AND HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WOULD MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY IN OTHERWISE WARM PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 Read more
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEBRASKA INTO MN...BECOMING OCCLUDED OVER CNTRL/SRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG FORCING NEAR THE LOW...AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG THE FRONT FROM MO INTO SRN KS/NRN OK. ELSEWHERE...WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINGENT ON AT LEAST WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...IA...SRN MN...WRN WI... MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SD NEAR A DEEPENING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER SRN WI/NRN IL ALONG A WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE MOST OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 700 MB YIELDING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THUS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HAIL EARLY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT WWD TO THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARD TO THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND CAPPING. A STOUT EML WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CIN DECREASING ONLY ONCE THE STRONG FORCING ARRIVES. THUS...MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN STRONG FORCING ERODES THE CAP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL/SRN MN AND WRN WI. SRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF CNTRL IA IS MORE CONDITIONAL AS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND SUPERCELLS...EITHER SINGLE CELL OR EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR PROFILES...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT STORM COVERAGE AND QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBS AT THIS TIME. ...S TX... WHILE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS /SEE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION/. ASSUMING THIS IS WHAT OCCURS...AND USING THE NAM SOLUTION AS AN ENVIRONMENTAL PROXY...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS S TX AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VEERING AND HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WOULD MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY IN OTHERWISE WARM PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEBRASKA INTO MN...BECOMING OCCLUDED OVER CNTRL/SRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG FORCING NEAR THE LOW...AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG THE FRONT FROM MO INTO SRN KS/NRN OK. ELSEWHERE...WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINGENT ON AT LEAST WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...IA...SRN MN...WRN WI... MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SD NEAR A DEEPENING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER SRN WI/NRN IL ALONG A WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE MOST OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 700 MB YIELDING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THUS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HAIL EARLY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT WWD TO THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARD TO THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND CAPPING. A STOUT EML WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CIN DECREASING ONLY ONCE THE STRONG FORCING ARRIVES. THUS...MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN STRONG FORCING ERODES THE CAP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL/SRN MN AND WRN WI. SRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF CNTRL IA IS MORE CONDITIONAL AS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND SUPERCELLS...EITHER SINGLE CELL OR EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR PROFILES...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT STORM COVERAGE AND QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBS AT THIS TIME. ...S TX... WHILE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS /SEE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION/. ASSUMING THIS IS WHAT OCCURS...AND USING THE NAM SOLUTION AS AN ENVIRONMENTAL PROXY...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS S TX AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VEERING AND HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WOULD MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY IN OTHERWISE WARM PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 Read more
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEBRASKA INTO MN...BECOMING OCCLUDED OVER CNTRL/SRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG FORCING NEAR THE LOW...AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG THE FRONT FROM MO INTO SRN KS/NRN OK. ELSEWHERE...WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINGENT ON AT LEAST WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...IA...SRN MN...WRN WI... MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SD NEAR A DEEPENING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER SRN WI/NRN IL ALONG A WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE MOST OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 700 MB YIELDING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THUS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HAIL EARLY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT WWD TO THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARD TO THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND CAPPING. A STOUT EML WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CIN DECREASING ONLY ONCE THE STRONG FORCING ARRIVES. THUS...MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN STRONG FORCING ERODES THE CAP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL/SRN MN AND WRN WI. SRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF CNTRL IA IS MORE CONDITIONAL AS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND SUPERCELLS...EITHER SINGLE CELL OR EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR PROFILES...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT STORM COVERAGE AND QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBS AT THIS TIME. ...S TX... WHILE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS /SEE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION/. ASSUMING THIS IS WHAT OCCURS...AND USING THE NAM SOLUTION AS AN ENVIRONMENTAL PROXY...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS S TX AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VEERING AND HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WOULD MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY IN OTHERWISE WARM PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 5, 2010 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
SPC 1730Z Day 2 Outlook
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEBRASKA INTO MN...BECOMING OCCLUDED OVER CNTRL/SRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG FORCING NEAR THE LOW...AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG THE FRONT FROM MO INTO SRN KS/NRN OK. ELSEWHERE...WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINGENT ON AT LEAST WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...IA...SRN MN...WRN WI... MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SD NEAR A DEEPENING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER SRN WI/NRN IL ALONG A WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE MOST OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 700 MB YIELDING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THUS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HAIL EARLY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT WWD TO THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARD TO THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND CAPPING. A STOUT EML WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CIN DECREASING ONLY ONCE THE STRONG FORCING ARRIVES. THUS...MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN STRONG FORCING ERODES THE CAP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL/SRN MN AND WRN WI. SRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF CNTRL IA IS MORE CONDITIONAL AS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND SUPERCELLS...EITHER SINGLE CELL OR EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR PROFILES...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT STORM COVERAGE AND QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBS AT THIS TIME. ...S TX... WHILE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS /SEE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION/. ASSUMING THIS IS WHAT OCCURS...AND USING THE NAM SOLUTION AS AN ENVIRONMENTAL PROXY...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS S TX AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VEERING AND HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WOULD MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY IN OTHERWISE WARM PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 Read more
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1230 PM CDT SUN SEP 05 2010 VALID 061200Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY... ...SYNOPSIS... A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS...TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT APPROACHES THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EVENING. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW WILL MOVE FROM NEBRASKA INTO MN...BECOMING OCCLUDED OVER CNTRL/SRN MN BY LATE IN THE DAY. STRONG FORCING NEAR THE LOW...AND ALONG A TRAILING COLD FRONT WILL BE THE PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SEVERE STORMS LATE MONDAY. OTHER ISOLATED ACTIVITY WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG THE FRONT FROM MO INTO SRN KS/NRN OK. ELSEWHERE...WIND PROFILES MAY BECOME FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX COAST CONTINGENT ON AT LEAST WEAK TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION. ...IA...SRN MN...WRN WI... MAINLY ELEVATED CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING ACROSS SD NEAR A DEEPENING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SUB-SEVERE WITH ONLY SMALL HAIL POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF ONGOING ACTIVITY IS LIKELY TO BE OVER SRN WI/NRN IL ALONG A WARM FRONT AND NEAR THE MOST OF A SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. HERE...FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE STEEP MID TO UPPER LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE IN PLACE WITH ELEVATED PARCELS LIFTED NEAR 700 MB YIELDING AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE. THUS...SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY MAY CONTAIN HAIL EARLY. BY LATE AFTERNOON...ATTENTION WILL SHIFT WWD TO THE COLD FRONT. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IS IN REGARD TO THE QUALITY OF THE WARM SECTOR INSTABILITY AND CAPPING. A STOUT EML WILL BE IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE DAY...WITH CIN DECREASING ONLY ONCE THE STRONG FORCING ARRIVES. THUS...MOST OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA WILL REMAIN STORM-FREE UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING...WHEN STRONG FORCING ERODES THE CAP. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR SEVERE WILL BE NEAR THE SURFACE LOW/OCCLUDED FRONTAL ZONE OVER CNTRL/SRN MN AND WRN WI. SRN PORTIONS OF THE SLIGHT RISK AREA INCLUDING MUCH OF CNTRL IA IS MORE CONDITIONAL AS STORM COVERAGE WILL BE IN QUESTION DUE TO CAPPING CONCERNS. WIND PROFILES WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION...AND SUPERCELLS...EITHER SINGLE CELL OR EMBEDDED WITHIN A LINE...WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE SHEAR PROFILES...A STRONG TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...BUT CONCERNS ABOUT STORM COVERAGE AND QUALITY OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL PRECLUDE INTRODUCTION OF HIGHER PROBS AT THIS TIME. ...S TX... WHILE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES EXIST BETWEEN VARIOUS FORECAST MODELS...THERE APPEARS TO BE A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WRN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS /SEE OFFICIAL NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER FORECAST FOR MORE INFORMATION/. ASSUMING THIS IS WHAT OCCURS...AND USING THE NAM SOLUTION AS AN ENVIRONMENTAL PROXY...THERE WOULD BE A THREAT OF ISOLATED TORNADOES ACROSS S TX AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL VEERING AND HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. IN ADDITION...DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 70S WOULD MAXIMIZE INSTABILITY IN OTHERWISE WARM PROFILES. ..JEWELL.. 09/05/2010 Read more
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