SPC Sep 7, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
SPC MD 1794
MD 1794 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 645... FOR PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 645... VALID 070450Z - 070645Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 645 CONTINUES. TS HERMINE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NNWWD PER LATEST NHC FCST...THROUGH REMAINDER WW DURATION. IN STEP WITH TRANSLATION OF HERMINE'S CENTER...EXPECT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF MOST FAVORABLE NNW-NE-SE SECTOR OF CIRCULATION ENVELOPE INLAND. SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ATTM OFFSHORE PADRE ISLAND...MOVING NWWD TOWARD COAST...A FEW OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK-MDT AND EPISODIC CYCLONIC SHEAR. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG NERN EDGE OF AREA OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BASED ON FCST WIND FIELDS...VWP AND MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS. COMPACT AREA OF 0-1 KM AGL SRH 150-350 J/KG IS EVIDENT OVER LOWER TX COAST AND INLAND N OF CENTER...FOR CELLS MOVING NWWD. VWP TRENDS ALSO SHOW THAT HODOGRAPHS HAVE BEGUN TO ENLARGE AT CRP...A TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS CENTER MOVES ACROSS LOWER VALLEY REGION. AS CENTER OF HERMINE PASSES...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AT LOCATIONS TO ITS S THROUGH SW...GIVEN COMBINATION OF LESS-FAVORABLE SHEAR...RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY...AND RELATIVE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST ON HERMINE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 25959716 25929736 25849742 26019772 26059818 26249854 26789839 27259851 27309823 28549834 28719813 28639780 29109700 28369636 28069678 27619719 27169738 26579726 25959716 Read more
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1794 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1150 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS LOWER-MIDDLE TX COASTAL PLAIN. CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 645... VALID 070450Z - 070645Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 645 CONTINUES. TS HERMINE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY NNWWD PER LATEST NHC FCST...THROUGH REMAINDER WW DURATION. IN STEP WITH TRANSLATION OF HERMINE'S CENTER...EXPECT INCREASING AREAL COVERAGE OF MOST FAVORABLE NNW-NE-SE SECTOR OF CIRCULATION ENVELOPE INLAND. SCATTERED DISCRETE TSTMS ARE EVIDENT ATTM OFFSHORE PADRE ISLAND...MOVING NWWD TOWARD COAST...A FEW OF WHICH HAVE EXHIBITED WEAK-MDT AND EPISODIC CYCLONIC SHEAR. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO LIE ALONG NERN EDGE OF AREA OF FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS BASED ON FCST WIND FIELDS...VWP AND MODIFIED FCST SOUNDINGS. COMPACT AREA OF 0-1 KM AGL SRH 150-350 J/KG IS EVIDENT OVER LOWER TX COAST AND INLAND N OF CENTER...FOR CELLS MOVING NWWD. VWP TRENDS ALSO SHOW THAT HODOGRAPHS HAVE BEGUN TO ENLARGE AT CRP...A TREND THAT SHOULD CONTINUE AS CENTER MOVES ACROSS LOWER VALLEY REGION. AS CENTER OF HERMINE PASSES...TORNADO POTENTIAL SHOULD DIMINISH AT LOCATIONS TO ITS S THROUGH SW...GIVEN COMBINATION OF LESS-FAVORABLE SHEAR...RELATIVELY WEAK BUOYANCY...AND RELATIVE LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION. REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST ON HERMINE. ..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 25959716 25929736 25849742 26019772 26059818 26249854 26789839 27259851 27309823 28549834 28719813 28639780 29109700 28369636 28069678 27619719 27169738 26579726 25959716 Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 645 Status Reports
WW 0645 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FORTHCOMING. ..EDWARDS..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469- 489-070540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD HIDALGO JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. MESOSCALE DISCUSSION FORTHCOMING. ..EDWARDS..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469- 489-070540- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD HIDALGO JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070540- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644 Status Reports
WW 0644 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DBQ TO 40 NNW VOK. ..STOPPKOTTE..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-023-043-049-057-065-081-103-111-123-070440- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA JUNEAU LAFAYETTE MONROE RICHLAND SAUK VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DBQ TO 40 NNW VOK. ..STOPPKOTTE..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-023-043-049-057-065-081-103-111-123-070440- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA JUNEAU LAFAYETTE MONROE RICHLAND SAUK VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644 Status Reports
WW 0644 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DBQ TO 40 NNW VOK. ..STOPPKOTTE..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-023-043-049-057-065-081-103-111-123-070440- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA JUNEAU LAFAYETTE MONROE RICHLAND SAUK VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DBQ TO 40 NNW VOK. ..STOPPKOTTE..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-023-043-049-057-065-081-103-111-123-070440- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA JUNEAU LAFAYETTE MONROE RICHLAND SAUK VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644 Status Reports
WW 0644 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DBQ TO 40 NNW VOK. ..STOPPKOTTE..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-023-043-049-057-065-081-103-111-123-070440- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA JUNEAU LAFAYETTE MONROE RICHLAND SAUK VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DBQ TO 40 NNW VOK. ..STOPPKOTTE..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-023-043-049-057-065-081-103-111-123-070440- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA JUNEAU LAFAYETTE MONROE RICHLAND SAUK VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644 Status Reports
WW 0644 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DBQ TO 40 NNW VOK. ..STOPPKOTTE..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-023-043-049-057-065-081-103-111-123-070440- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA JUNEAU LAFAYETTE MONROE RICHLAND SAUK VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DBQ TO 40 NNW VOK. ..STOPPKOTTE..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-023-043-049-057-065-081-103-111-123-070440- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA JUNEAU LAFAYETTE MONROE RICHLAND SAUK VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644 Status Reports
WW 0644 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DBQ TO 40 NNW VOK. ..STOPPKOTTE..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-023-043-049-057-065-081-103-111-123-070440- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA JUNEAU LAFAYETTE MONROE RICHLAND SAUK VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW DBQ TO 40 NNW VOK. ..STOPPKOTTE..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...ARX...MKX... STATUS REPORT FOR WS 644 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS WIC001-023-043-049-057-065-081-103-111-123-070440- WI . WISCONSIN COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ADAMS CRAWFORD GRANT IOWA JUNEAU LAFAYETTE MONROE RICHLAND SAUK VERNON THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES. Read more
SPC Severe Thunderstorm Watch 644
WW 644 SEVERE TSTM IA MN WI 070050Z - 070600Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 644 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 750 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 50 MILES EAST OF WATERLOO IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER EAST-CENTRAL IA. THESE STORMS ARE IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND IN REGION OF MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS STORMS TRACK ACROSS WATCH AREA. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045. ...HART Read more
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 644 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 750 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST IOWA SOUTHEAST MINNESOTA SOUTHWEST WISCONSIN EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 750 PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT. HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF LA CROSSE WISCONSIN TO 50 MILES EAST OF WATERLOO IOWA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4). REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY DO PRODUCE TORNADOES. DISCUSSION...A BROKEN LINE OF FAST MOVING THUNDERSTORMS IS SLOWLY INTENSIFYING OVER EAST-CENTRAL IA. THESE STORMS ARE IN ADVANCE OF A SURFACE COLD FRONT...AND IN REGION OF MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY. STRONG WIND FIELDS ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS STORMS TRACK ACROSS WATCH AREA. AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045. ...HART Read more
SPC MD 1793
MD 1793 CONCERNING HEAVY RAINFALL FOR PORTIONS DEEP S TX.
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DEEP S TX. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 070313Z - 070615Z WARM-CLOUD RAIN RATES COMMONLY 1-2 INCHES/HOUR...AND LOCALLY/BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES/HOUR...ARE POSSIBLE IN INNER REGION OF TS HERMINE AS CENTER FOLLOWS NNWLY TRACK TOWARD LOWER VALLEY REGION DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PER NHC WIND FCSTS...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WELL-FOCUSED INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF CIRCULATION. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED RING OF HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS NWRN SEMICIRCLE WHERE RICHEST LAYER OF MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH PW NEAR 2.5 INCHES...FARTHEST REMOVED FROM EFFECTS OF ANY DRY AIR ENTRAINED INTO SYSTEM FROM MEX PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NNWWD ACROSS MUCH OF CAMERON/HIDALGO/WILLACY/KENEDY/BROOKS COUNTIES THROUGH 06Z. INNER-CORE CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW LOOSELY-ORGANIZED INNER SPIRAL BAND -- EVIDENT AS OF 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS WILLACY AND SRN KENEDY COUNTY SEWD OVER GULF...AND ALSO PRODUCING BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN. REF HPC EXCESSIVE RAIN DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO ON OVERALL PRECIP THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 08/00Z. REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST INFO ON HERMINE. REF WW 645 AND SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 26519845 27089863 27349873 27439828 27279775 26999738 26629727 26239718 25979713 25949723 25929734 25799738 25909752 26039765 26049776 26079806 26079821 26519845 Read more
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1793 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1013 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS DEEP S TX. CONCERNING...HEAVY RAINFALL VALID 070313Z - 070615Z WARM-CLOUD RAIN RATES COMMONLY 1-2 INCHES/HOUR...AND LOCALLY/BRIEFLY EXCEEDING 3 INCHES/HOUR...ARE POSSIBLE IN INNER REGION OF TS HERMINE AS CENTER FOLLOWS NNWLY TRACK TOWARD LOWER VALLEY REGION DURING NEXT FEW HOURS. ALTHOUGH HERMINE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN PER NHC WIND FCSTS...LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE SHOULD REMAIN WELL-FOCUSED INTO CENTRAL PORTION OF CIRCULATION. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONTINUED RING OF HEAVY-RAIN PRODUCING CONVECTION...PARTICULARLY OVER PORTIONS NWRN SEMICIRCLE WHERE RICHEST LAYER OF MARITIME/TROPICAL AIR SHOULD BE MAINTAINED WITH PW NEAR 2.5 INCHES...FARTHEST REMOVED FROM EFFECTS OF ANY DRY AIR ENTRAINED INTO SYSTEM FROM MEX PLATEAU. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE NNWWD ACROSS MUCH OF CAMERON/HIDALGO/WILLACY/KENEDY/BROOKS COUNTIES THROUGH 06Z. INNER-CORE CONVECTION WILL FOLLOW LOOSELY-ORGANIZED INNER SPIRAL BAND -- EVIDENT AS OF 03Z ACROSS PORTIONS WILLACY AND SRN KENEDY COUNTY SEWD OVER GULF...AND ALSO PRODUCING BURSTS OF HEAVY RAIN. REF HPC EXCESSIVE RAIN DISCUSSION FOR MORE INFO ON OVERALL PRECIP THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM THROUGH 08/00Z. REF NHC ADVISORIES FOR LATEST TRACK/INTENSITY FCST INFO ON HERMINE. REF WW 645 AND SUBSEQUENT MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS FOR TORNADO POTENTIAL. ..EDWARDS.. 09/07/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... LAT...LON 26519845 27089863 27349873 27439828 27279775 26999738 26629727 26239718 25979713 25949723 25929734 25799738 25909752 26039765 26049776 26079806 26079821 26519845 Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 645 Status Reports
WW 0645 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..EDWARDS..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469- 489-070340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD HIDALGO JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..EDWARDS..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469- 489-070340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD HIDALGO JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 645 Status Reports
WW 0645 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..EDWARDS..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469- 489-070340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD HIDALGO JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..EDWARDS..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469- 489-070340- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD HIDALGO JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070340- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLORADO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 645 Status Reports
WW 0645 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..EDWARDS..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469- 489-070240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD HIDALGO JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..EDWARDS..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469- 489-070240- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD HIDALGO JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070240- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SE TX COASTAL REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG/COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW NOW CROSSING ERN SD IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ALSO MAKING EWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS IL/SRN MO AND INTO OK/NWRN TX/SRN NM. ELSEWHERE...T.S. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS FAR NERN MEXICO...AND THEN MOVE INTO DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND VICINITY... COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/LOW MOVING ACROSS ERN SD ATTM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE FRONT FROM ERN MN SWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN IA...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINS HINDERED BY A GENERALLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR/CAPPING IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. STORMS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL AIDED BY VERY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...YIELDING SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY STABILIZES. ...SE TX COAST... T.S. HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING NWWD TOWARD DEEP S TX ATTM...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SERN TX. AS THE STORM CONTINUES NWWD...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COAST WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SE TX COASTAL REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG/COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW NOW CROSSING ERN SD IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ALSO MAKING EWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS IL/SRN MO AND INTO OK/NWRN TX/SRN NM. ELSEWHERE...T.S. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS FAR NERN MEXICO...AND THEN MOVE INTO DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND VICINITY... COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/LOW MOVING ACROSS ERN SD ATTM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE FRONT FROM ERN MN SWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN IA...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINS HINDERED BY A GENERALLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR/CAPPING IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. STORMS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL AIDED BY VERY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...YIELDING SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY STABILIZES. ...SE TX COAST... T.S. HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING NWWD TOWARD DEEP S TX ATTM...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SERN TX. AS THE STORM CONTINUES NWWD...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COAST WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SE TX COASTAL REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG/COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW NOW CROSSING ERN SD IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ALSO MAKING EWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS IL/SRN MO AND INTO OK/NWRN TX/SRN NM. ELSEWHERE...T.S. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS FAR NERN MEXICO...AND THEN MOVE INTO DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND VICINITY... COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/LOW MOVING ACROSS ERN SD ATTM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE FRONT FROM ERN MN SWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN IA...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINS HINDERED BY A GENERALLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR/CAPPING IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. STORMS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL AIDED BY VERY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...YIELDING SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY STABILIZES. ...SE TX COAST... T.S. HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING NWWD TOWARD DEEP S TX ATTM...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SERN TX. AS THE STORM CONTINUES NWWD...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COAST WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SE TX COASTAL REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG/COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW NOW CROSSING ERN SD IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ALSO MAKING EWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS IL/SRN MO AND INTO OK/NWRN TX/SRN NM. ELSEWHERE...T.S. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS FAR NERN MEXICO...AND THEN MOVE INTO DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND VICINITY... COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/LOW MOVING ACROSS ERN SD ATTM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE FRONT FROM ERN MN SWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN IA...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINS HINDERED BY A GENERALLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR/CAPPING IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. STORMS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL AIDED BY VERY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...YIELDING SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY STABILIZES. ...SE TX COAST... T.S. HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING NWWD TOWARD DEEP S TX ATTM...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SERN TX. AS THE STORM CONTINUES NWWD...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COAST WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SE TX COASTAL REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG/COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW NOW CROSSING ERN SD IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ALSO MAKING EWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS IL/SRN MO AND INTO OK/NWRN TX/SRN NM. ELSEWHERE...T.S. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS FAR NERN MEXICO...AND THEN MOVE INTO DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND VICINITY... COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/LOW MOVING ACROSS ERN SD ATTM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE FRONT FROM ERN MN SWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN IA...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINS HINDERED BY A GENERALLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR/CAPPING IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. STORMS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL AIDED BY VERY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...YIELDING SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY STABILIZES. ...SE TX COAST... T.S. HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING NWWD TOWARD DEEP S TX ATTM...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SERN TX. AS THE STORM CONTINUES NWWD...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COAST WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SE TX COASTAL REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG/COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW NOW CROSSING ERN SD IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ALSO MAKING EWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS IL/SRN MO AND INTO OK/NWRN TX/SRN NM. ELSEWHERE...T.S. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS FAR NERN MEXICO...AND THEN MOVE INTO DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND VICINITY... COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/LOW MOVING ACROSS ERN SD ATTM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE FRONT FROM ERN MN SWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN IA...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINS HINDERED BY A GENERALLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR/CAPPING IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. STORMS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL AIDED BY VERY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...YIELDING SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY STABILIZES. ...SE TX COAST... T.S. HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING NWWD TOWARD DEEP S TX ATTM...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SERN TX. AS THE STORM CONTINUES NWWD...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COAST WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 0100Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SE TX COASTAL REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG/COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW NOW CROSSING ERN SD IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ALSO MAKING EWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS IL/SRN MO AND INTO OK/NWRN TX/SRN NM. ELSEWHERE...T.S. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS FAR NERN MEXICO...AND THEN MOVE INTO DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND VICINITY... COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/LOW MOVING ACROSS ERN SD ATTM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE FRONT FROM ERN MN SWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN IA...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINS HINDERED BY A GENERALLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR/CAPPING IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. STORMS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL AIDED BY VERY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...YIELDING SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY STABILIZES. ...SE TX COAST... T.S. HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING NWWD TOWARD DEEP S TX ATTM...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SERN TX. AS THE STORM CONTINUES NWWD...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COAST WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0807 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010 VALID 070100Z - 071200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SE TX COASTAL REGION... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG/COMPACT MID-LEVEL LOW NOW CROSSING ERN SD IS PROGGED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT...WITH THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND ATTENDANT COLD FRONT ALSO MAKING EWD PROGRESS THROUGH THE PERIOD. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...THE FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION SWWD ACROSS IL/SRN MO AND INTO OK/NWRN TX/SRN NM. ELSEWHERE...T.S. HERMINE IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ACROSS FAR NERN MEXICO...AND THEN MOVE INTO DEEP S TX OVERNIGHT. ...UPPER MS VALLEY AND VICINITY... COLD FRONT CONTINUES SWEEPING EWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY...AHEAD OF THE MID-LEVEL VORT MAX/LOW MOVING ACROSS ERN SD ATTM. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN A BROKEN BAND ALONG THE FRONT FROM ERN MN SWD INTO CENTRAL AND ERN IA...AND THEN SWWD ACROSS KS INTO NRN OK...THOUGH CONVECTIVE INTENSITY REMAINS HINDERED BY A GENERALLY MODEST INSTABILITY AND WARM AIR/CAPPING IN THE 850 TO 700 MB LAYER. STORMS SHOULD PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH INTENSITY/SEVERE POTENTIAL AIDED BY VERY STRONG/VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT...YIELDING SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED/SUPERCELL STORMS. LARGE HAIL AND/OR DAMAGING WINDS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...WITH AN ISOLATED TORNADO ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT CONVECTIVE INTENSITY/SEVERE THREAT TO SLOWLY DIMINISH LATER THIS EVENING AS AIRMASS DIURNALLY STABILIZES. ...SE TX COAST... T.S. HERMINE CONTINUES MOVING NWWD TOWARD DEEP S TX ATTM...WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ONGOING ACROSS COASTAL SERN TX. AS THE STORM CONTINUES NWWD...INCREASING LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COAST WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED ROTATING CELLS...AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR BRIEF TORNADO DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. ..GOSS.. 09/07/2010 Read more
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