SPC Sep 7, 2010 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... AMPLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL/MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE EJECTING MID-WEEK WESTERN STATES TROUGH...WHICH AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL BE STEADILY ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/PERHAPS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PERHAPS UPPER MS VALLEY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUCH A SEVERE THREAT COULD BE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MN. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ANA-FRONTAL TYPE SCENARIO...WITH MODEST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR JUXTAPOSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/ RISK AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE. INTO DAY 5/SATURDAY...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NOTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WOULD EXIST ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...GIVEN THAT THE BRUNT OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE MINORING/SPREADING INTO CANADA. OTHERWISE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD DEAMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND...WITH RESULTANT LOW AMPLITUDE/MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITIES BY AROUND DAY 6/DAY 7. THIS WOULD BE AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AS A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY EXISTS GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE REGIME BY THAT JUNCTURE. Read more
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... AMPLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL/MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE EJECTING MID-WEEK WESTERN STATES TROUGH...WHICH AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL BE STEADILY ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/PERHAPS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PERHAPS UPPER MS VALLEY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUCH A SEVERE THREAT COULD BE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MN. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ANA-FRONTAL TYPE SCENARIO...WITH MODEST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR JUXTAPOSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/ RISK AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE. INTO DAY 5/SATURDAY...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NOTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WOULD EXIST ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...GIVEN THAT THE BRUNT OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE MINORING/SPREADING INTO CANADA. OTHERWISE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD DEAMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND...WITH RESULTANT LOW AMPLITUDE/MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITIES BY AROUND DAY 6/DAY 7. THIS WOULD BE AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AS A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY EXISTS GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE REGIME BY THAT JUNCTURE. Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... AMPLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL/MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE EJECTING MID-WEEK WESTERN STATES TROUGH...WHICH AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL BE STEADILY ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/PERHAPS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PERHAPS UPPER MS VALLEY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUCH A SEVERE THREAT COULD BE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MN. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ANA-FRONTAL TYPE SCENARIO...WITH MODEST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR JUXTAPOSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/ RISK AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE. INTO DAY 5/SATURDAY...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NOTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WOULD EXIST ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...GIVEN THAT THE BRUNT OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE MINORING/SPREADING INTO CANADA. OTHERWISE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD DEAMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND...WITH RESULTANT LOW AMPLITUDE/MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITIES BY AROUND DAY 6/DAY 7. THIS WOULD BE AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AS A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY EXISTS GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE REGIME BY THAT JUNCTURE. Read more
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... AMPLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL/MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE EJECTING MID-WEEK WESTERN STATES TROUGH...WHICH AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL BE STEADILY ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/PERHAPS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PERHAPS UPPER MS VALLEY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUCH A SEVERE THREAT COULD BE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MN. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ANA-FRONTAL TYPE SCENARIO...WITH MODEST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR JUXTAPOSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/ RISK AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE. INTO DAY 5/SATURDAY...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NOTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WOULD EXIST ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...GIVEN THAT THE BRUNT OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE MINORING/SPREADING INTO CANADA. OTHERWISE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD DEAMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND...WITH RESULTANT LOW AMPLITUDE/MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITIES BY AROUND DAY 6/DAY 7. THIS WOULD BE AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AS A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY EXISTS GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE REGIME BY THAT JUNCTURE. Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... AMPLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL/MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE EJECTING MID-WEEK WESTERN STATES TROUGH...WHICH AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL BE STEADILY ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/PERHAPS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PERHAPS UPPER MS VALLEY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUCH A SEVERE THREAT COULD BE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MN. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ANA-FRONTAL TYPE SCENARIO...WITH MODEST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR JUXTAPOSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/ RISK AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE. INTO DAY 5/SATURDAY...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NOTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WOULD EXIST ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...GIVEN THAT THE BRUNT OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE MINORING/SPREADING INTO CANADA. OTHERWISE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD DEAMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND...WITH RESULTANT LOW AMPLITUDE/MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITIES BY AROUND DAY 6/DAY 7. THIS WOULD BE AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AS A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY EXISTS GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE REGIME BY THAT JUNCTURE. Read more
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... AMPLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL/MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE EJECTING MID-WEEK WESTERN STATES TROUGH...WHICH AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL BE STEADILY ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/PERHAPS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PERHAPS UPPER MS VALLEY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUCH A SEVERE THREAT COULD BE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MN. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ANA-FRONTAL TYPE SCENARIO...WITH MODEST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR JUXTAPOSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/ RISK AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE. INTO DAY 5/SATURDAY...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NOTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WOULD EXIST ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...GIVEN THAT THE BRUNT OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE MINORING/SPREADING INTO CANADA. OTHERWISE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD DEAMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND...WITH RESULTANT LOW AMPLITUDE/MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITIES BY AROUND DAY 6/DAY 7. THIS WOULD BE AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AS A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY EXISTS GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE REGIME BY THAT JUNCTURE. Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
Day 4-8 Outlook
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... AMPLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL/MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE EJECTING MID-WEEK WESTERN STATES TROUGH...WHICH AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL BE STEADILY ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/PERHAPS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PERHAPS UPPER MS VALLEY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUCH A SEVERE THREAT COULD BE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MN. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ANA-FRONTAL TYPE SCENARIO...WITH MODEST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR JUXTAPOSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/ RISK AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE. INTO DAY 5/SATURDAY...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NOTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WOULD EXIST ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...GIVEN THAT THE BRUNT OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE MINORING/SPREADING INTO CANADA. OTHERWISE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD DEAMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND...WITH RESULTANT LOW AMPLITUDE/MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITIES BY AROUND DAY 6/DAY 7. THIS WOULD BE AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AS A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY EXISTS GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE REGIME BY THAT JUNCTURE. Read more
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0342 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 101200Z - 151200Z ...DISCUSSION... AMPLE LARGE SCALE AGREEMENT CONTINUES THROUGH LATE WEEK AMONG 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. THE INITIAL/MAIN FOCUS WILL BE ON THE EJECTING MID-WEEK WESTERN STATES TROUGH...WHICH AFOREMENTIONED GUIDANCE INDICATES WILL BE STEADILY ADVANCING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY ON DAY 4/FRIDAY. AS THIS OCCURS...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE RISK IS PROBABLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE/PERHAPS LOWER MO RIVER VALLEY...TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AND PERHAPS UPPER MS VALLEY. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT SUCH A SEVERE THREAT COULD BE CENTERED ACROSS EASTERN NEB/WESTERN IA...AND PERHAPS ADJACENT EASTERN KS/NORTHERN MO AS WELL AS SOUTHERN MN. THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ANA-FRONTAL TYPE SCENARIO...WITH MODEST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR JUXTAPOSED WITH THE WARM SECTOR...PRECLUDES CONSIDERATION OF A HIGHER PROBABILITY /30 PERCENT AND GREATER/ RISK AREA AT THIS JUNCTURE. INTO DAY 5/SATURDAY...CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT NOTHING BEYOND AN ISOLATED/MARGINAL SEVERE RISK WOULD EXIST ALONG THE EASTWARD ADVANCING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OHIO VALLEY...GIVEN THAT THE BRUNT OF THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH SHOULD BE MINORING/SPREADING INTO CANADA. OTHERWISE...THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN SHOULD DEAMPLIFY THIS WEEKEND...WITH RESULTANT LOW AMPLITUDE/MODERATELY STRONG WESTERLIES PREVALENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS. THERE ARE EARLY INDICATIONS THAT SOME SEVERE THREAT COULD INCREASE ACROSS THE MIDDLE MO VALLEY/UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS VALLEY VICINITIES BY AROUND DAY 6/DAY 7. THIS WOULD BE AS MOISTURE RETURNS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION...AS A RELATIVELY LOW AMPLITUDE TROUGH CROSSES THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS LATE THIS WEEKEND/EARLY NEXT WEEK PER 00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE. HOWEVER...CONSIDERABLY LIMITED PREDICTABILITY EXISTS GIVEN THE LOW AMPLITUDE NATURE OF THE LARGE SCALE REGIME BY THAT JUNCTURE. Read more
SPC MD 1795
MD 1795 CONCERNING TORNADO WATCH 645... FOR SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN TX
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 645... VALID 070838Z - 071015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 645 CONTINUES. TORNADO WATCH 645 WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH BEFORE 10Z VALID THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FARTHER NORTHEAST TO INCLUDE PARTS OF SERN TX. AS OF 08Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS OVER S TX NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE AND IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL NWD DIRECTION THIS MORNING. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE TX COAST SEWD INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH WWD EXTENT ONSHORE. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN MOST ACTIVE WITHIN A BAND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND PALACIOS EXTENDING INTO THE WRN GULF. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITHIN THIS BAND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY FROM 200-400 M2/S2. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR HAS BEEN TIME OF DAY WITH LACK OF INSOLATION LIMITING INSTABILITY WITHIN THE LOWEST 2 KM. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS ROTATING OFFSHORE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MORE INLAND WHERE CAPE IS MORE LIMITED. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS MAY INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS DIABATIC WARMING INCREASES. THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN TX AS THE CENTER CONTINUES NWD. ..DIAL.. 09/07/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 27189759 27909813 29179728 29709581 29129529 28459579 27389639 27189759 Read more
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1795 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0338 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN TX CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 645... VALID 070838Z - 071015Z THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 645 CONTINUES. TORNADO WATCH 645 WILL BE REPLACED BY ANOTHER TORNADO WATCH BEFORE 10Z VALID THE REMAINDER OF THE MORNING. THE NEW WATCH WILL LIKELY EXTEND FARTHER NORTHEAST TO INCLUDE PARTS OF SERN TX. AS OF 08Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM HERMINE WAS OVER S TX NORTH OF BROWNSVILLE AND IS FORECAST BY THE NHC TO CONTINUE IN A GENERAL NWD DIRECTION THIS MORNING. SEE LATEST ADVISORIES FROM THE NHC FOR MORE DETAILED INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A RESERVOIR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THE TX COAST SEWD INTO THE WRN GULF...WITH MORE LIMITED INSTABILITY WITH WWD EXTENT ONSHORE. THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN MOST ACTIVE WITHIN A BAND NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND PALACIOS EXTENDING INTO THE WRN GULF. INDIVIDUAL STORMS WITHIN THIS BAND ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR LOW-LEVEL MESOCYCLONES WITH 0-1 KM HELICITY FROM 200-400 M2/S2. PRIMARY LIMITING FACTOR HAS BEEN TIME OF DAY WITH LACK OF INSOLATION LIMITING INSTABILITY WITHIN THE LOWEST 2 KM. TENDENCY HAS BEEN FOR STORMS ROTATING OFFSHORE TO WEAKEN AS THEY MORE INLAND WHERE CAPE IS MORE LIMITED. HOWEVER...THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WITHIN THE OUTER BANDS MAY INCREASE LATER THIS MORNING AS DIABATIC WARMING INCREASES. THREAT WILL GRADUALLY SPREAD INTO S-CNTRL AND SERN TX AS THE CENTER CONTINUES NWD. ..DIAL.. 09/07/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... ATTN...WFO...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO... LAT...LON 27189759 27909813 29179728 29709581 29129529 28459579 27389639 27189759 Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 645 Status Reports
WW 0645 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW BRO TO 50 NNE MFE TO 35 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW BRO TO 50 NNE MFE TO 35 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 645 Status Reports
WW 0645 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW BRO TO 50 NNE MFE TO 35 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW BRO TO 50 NNE MFE TO 35 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 645 Status Reports
WW 0645 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW BRO TO 50 NNE MFE TO 35 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW BRO TO 50 NNE MFE TO 35 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 645 Status Reports
WW 0645 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW BRO TO 50 NNE MFE TO 35 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW BRO TO 50 NNE MFE TO 35 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 645 Status Reports
WW 0645 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW BRO TO 50 NNE MFE TO 35 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 SSW BRO TO 50 NNE MFE TO 35 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070940- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070940- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 645
WW 645 TORNADO TX CW 070100Z - 071000Z
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 645 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 800 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 800 PM UNTIL 500 AM CDT. TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BEEVILLE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 644... DISCUSSION...PER LATEST NHC FCST...TS HERMINE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL SOON AFTER WW ISSUANCE AND MOVE NNWWD ACROSS LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION OVER DEEP S TX. ASSOCIATED RISK FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD BE WITHIN SMALL SECTOR NNW-NE-SE OF CENTER OF THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT SYSTEM...WHERE AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE PRESENT AS EVIDENT IN 00Z BRO RAOB AND VWP. THIS REGIME SHOULD SHIFT NNWWD AND NWD UP COASTLINE IN STEP WITH TRANSLATION OF CENTER OF HERMINE. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 13035. ...EDWARDS/HART Read more
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 645 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 800 PM CDT MON SEP 6 2010 THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS COASTAL WATERS EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING FROM 800 PM UNTIL 500 AM CDT. TORNADOES...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF BEEVILLE TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5). REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 644... DISCUSSION...PER LATEST NHC FCST...TS HERMINE SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL SOON AFTER WW ISSUANCE AND MOVE NNWWD ACROSS LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY REGION OVER DEEP S TX. ASSOCIATED RISK FOR MINI-SUPERCELLS AND A FEW BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD BE WITHIN SMALL SECTOR NNW-NE-SE OF CENTER OF THIS RELATIVELY COMPACT SYSTEM...WHERE AT LEAST MRGL BUOYANCY AND ENLARGED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL BE PRESENT AS EVIDENT IN 00Z BRO RAOB AND VWP. THIS REGIME SHOULD SHIFT NNWWD AND NWD UP COASTLINE IN STEP WITH TRANSLATION OF CENTER OF HERMINE. AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 13035. ...EDWARDS/HART Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY WED. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REACHING LAKE ERIE TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. IN THE WEST...A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN CA. ...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN NWRN NV... LOCALIZED/MODEST-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS STRENGTHENING DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 30 TO 40 MPH FLOW AT 700 MB WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THIS SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH LOW RH /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ FOR A FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO MOISTENING/COOLING OCCURRING IN THE EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV INTO W-CNTRL UT... A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NV DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SURGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL SPREAD NWD WITH 30S/40S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING COMMON ACROSS ERN NV/WRN UT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE AT PEAK HEATING...BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY TRANSITION TO WET WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CNTRL NV...JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW RH /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE SWLYS IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS SUCH...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION ATTM. ...SERN LOWER MI... CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC DRYING WILL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE. RH VALUES SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY LOW FOR A FEW HOURS /NEAR 25 PERCENT/ UNTIL MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING OCCURS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WITH 40 TO 45 MPH LOW-LEVEL WLYS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH 25 MPH WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN FAVORABLE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. DESPITE BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...FUEL CONDITIONS APPEAR RELATIVELY MARGINAL...PER COORDINATION WITH WFO DTX...AND SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT. ...CNTRL/NRN WV...CNTRL PA...WRN MD... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM/DRY AIR MASS REMAINS WITHIN A SW TO NE CORRIDOR ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT...ALTHOUGH MOISTENING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. ..GRAMS.. 09/07/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY WED. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REACHING LAKE ERIE TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. IN THE WEST...A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN CA. ...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN NWRN NV... LOCALIZED/MODEST-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS STRENGTHENING DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 30 TO 40 MPH FLOW AT 700 MB WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THIS SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH LOW RH /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ FOR A FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO MOISTENING/COOLING OCCURRING IN THE EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV INTO W-CNTRL UT... A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NV DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SURGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL SPREAD NWD WITH 30S/40S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING COMMON ACROSS ERN NV/WRN UT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE AT PEAK HEATING...BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY TRANSITION TO WET WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CNTRL NV...JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW RH /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE SWLYS IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS SUCH...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION ATTM. ...SERN LOWER MI... CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC DRYING WILL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE. RH VALUES SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY LOW FOR A FEW HOURS /NEAR 25 PERCENT/ UNTIL MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING OCCURS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WITH 40 TO 45 MPH LOW-LEVEL WLYS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH 25 MPH WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN FAVORABLE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. DESPITE BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...FUEL CONDITIONS APPEAR RELATIVELY MARGINAL...PER COORDINATION WITH WFO DTX...AND SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT. ...CNTRL/NRN WV...CNTRL PA...WRN MD... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM/DRY AIR MASS REMAINS WITHIN A SW TO NE CORRIDOR ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT...ALTHOUGH MOISTENING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. ..GRAMS.. 09/07/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
SPC Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY WED. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REACHING LAKE ERIE TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. IN THE WEST...A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN CA. ...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN NWRN NV... LOCALIZED/MODEST-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS STRENGTHENING DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 30 TO 40 MPH FLOW AT 700 MB WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THIS SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH LOW RH /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ FOR A FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO MOISTENING/COOLING OCCURRING IN THE EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV INTO W-CNTRL UT... A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NV DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SURGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL SPREAD NWD WITH 30S/40S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING COMMON ACROSS ERN NV/WRN UT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE AT PEAK HEATING...BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY TRANSITION TO WET WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CNTRL NV...JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW RH /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE SWLYS IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS SUCH...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION ATTM. ...SERN LOWER MI... CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC DRYING WILL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE. RH VALUES SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY LOW FOR A FEW HOURS /NEAR 25 PERCENT/ UNTIL MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING OCCURS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WITH 40 TO 45 MPH LOW-LEVEL WLYS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH 25 MPH WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN FAVORABLE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. DESPITE BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...FUEL CONDITIONS APPEAR RELATIVELY MARGINAL...PER COORDINATION WITH WFO DTX...AND SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT. ...CNTRL/NRN WV...CNTRL PA...WRN MD... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM/DRY AIR MASS REMAINS WITHIN A SW TO NE CORRIDOR ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT...ALTHOUGH MOISTENING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. ..GRAMS.. 09/07/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
DAY 1 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0337 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...NO CRITICAL AREAS... ...SYNOPSIS... POTENT UPPER-LEVEL SHORT WAVE TROUGH OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY WILL TRANSLATE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES/SRN ONTARIO THROUGH EARLY WED. ATTENDANT SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EWD ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND MIDWEST REACHING LAKE ERIE TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY EARLY EVENING. IN THE WEST...A LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW INTO NRN CA. ...LEE OF THE NRN SIERRAS IN NWRN NV... LOCALIZED/MODEST-DURATION CRITICAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS WILL STRENGTHEN WITH APPROACH OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW. LATEST MODEL FORECASTS HAVE BECOME MORE CONSISTENT WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF THIS STRENGTHENING DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS 30 TO 40 MPH FLOW AT 700 MB WILL DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS INCREASING TO AROUND 20 MPH. THIS SHOULD BE COINCIDENT WITH LOW RH /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ FOR A FEW HOURS...PRIOR TO MOISTENING/COOLING OCCURRING IN THE EARLY EVENING. ...CNTRL/E-CNTRL NV INTO W-CNTRL UT... A BELT OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL SLYS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN NV DOWNSTREAM OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE PACIFIC NW. A SURGE OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY WILL SPREAD NWD WITH 30S/40S SURFACE DEW POINTS BECOMING COMMON ACROSS ERN NV/WRN UT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO INCREASINGLY MARGINAL RH VALUES. A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DRY TSTMS WILL ALSO EXIST ALONG THE LEADING EDGE OF THIS MOISTURE SURGE AT PEAK HEATING...BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY TRANSITION TO WET WITH CONTINUED MOISTENING. FARTHER WEST ACROSS CNTRL NV...JUXTAPOSITION OF LOW RH /FROM 10 TO 15 PERCENT/ WITH SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS AROUND 20 MPH SHOULD OCCUR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS SHOULD BE LIMITED BY THE LACK OF MORE INTENSE SWLYS IN THE MID-LEVELS. AS SUCH...OVERALL THREAT DOES NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A CRITICAL AREA DELINEATION ATTM. ...SERN LOWER MI... CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SUBSTANTIAL LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC DRYING WILL OCCUR AS A MID-LEVEL DRY SLOT OVERSPREADS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND A SURFACE COLD FRONT PUSHES EWD INTO SWRN ONTARIO/LAKE ERIE. RH VALUES SHOULD BECOME MARGINALLY LOW FOR A FEW HOURS /NEAR 25 PERCENT/ UNTIL MORE PRONOUNCED COOLING OCCURS DURING THE EARLY EVENING. WITH 40 TO 45 MPH LOW-LEVEL WLYS...SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD REACH 25 MPH WITH HIGH POTENTIAL FOR STRONGER GUSTS GIVEN FAVORABLE DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. DESPITE BELOW-NORMAL RAINFALL DURING THE PAST SEVERAL WEEKS...FUEL CONDITIONS APPEAR RELATIVELY MARGINAL...PER COORDINATION WITH WFO DTX...AND SHOULD HELP MITIGATE THE OVERALL THREAT. ...CNTRL/NRN WV...CNTRL PA...WRN MD... AN ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER THREAT APPEARS PROBABLE THIS AFTERNOON AS A WARM/DRY AIR MASS REMAINS WITHIN A SW TO NE CORRIDOR ACROSS THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS DOWNSTREAM OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS SWLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW INCREASES...CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BECOME MODERATE /AROUND 15 MPH/...WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH. ABOVE-NORMAL TEMPERATURES WARMING THROUGH THE 80S WILL SUPPORT RH VALUES FALLING TO BETWEEN 20 TO 30 PERCENT...ALTHOUGH MOISTENING IS EXPECTED FROM WEST TO EAST LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AS THE COLD FRONT NEARS. ..GRAMS.. 09/07/2010 ...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV/FIRE FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT... Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 645 Status Reports
WW 0645 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BRO TO 30 NE MFE TO 55 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BRO TO 30 NE MFE TO 55 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 645 Status Reports
WW 0645 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BRO TO 30 NE MFE TO 55 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 W BRO TO 30 NE MFE TO 55 SSW ALI. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469-489- 070740- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070740- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
SPC Tornado Watch 645 Status Reports
WW 0645 Status Reports
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469- 489-070640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD HIDALGO JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
STATUS REPORT ON WW 645 THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA. ..DIAL..09/07/10 ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO... STATUS REPORT FOR WT 645 SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS TXC007-025-047-057-061-175-215-249-261-273-297-355-391-409-469- 489-070640- TX . TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE ARANSAS BEE BROOKS CALHOUN CAMERON GOLIAD HIDALGO JIM WELLS KENEDY KLEBERG LIVE OAK NUECES REFUGIO SAN PATRICIO VICTORIA WILLACY GMZ130-132-135-150-155-230-235-250-255-070640- CW . ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE PORT OF BROWNSVILLE TO THE ARROYO COLORADO LAGUNA MADRE FROM THE ARROYO COLOARDO TO 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TX LAGUNA MADRE FROM 5 NM NORTH OF PORT MANSFIELD TO BAFFIN BAY TX Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
SPC Sep 7, 2010 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
SPC 1200Z Day 1 Outlook
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1232 AM CDT TUE SEP 07 2010 VALID 071200Z - 081200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... ...SYNOPSIS... WHILE AN UPPER LOW SHIFTS EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION...A LARGER LOW/TROUGH IS FORECAST TO DIG SWD INTO THE WRN U.S. THIS PERIOD. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE ERN UPPER FEATURE WILL SHIFT ACROSS THE MIDWEST...WHILE A SECOND FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE WRN UPPER SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS NRN AND CENTRAL CA AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN LATE. ELSEWHERE...WEAKENING TROPICAL SYSTEM HERMINE SHOULD LINGER INVOF S TX THROUGH THE PERIOD. ...PARTS OF ERN/SERN TX... WHILE REMNANT T.S. HERMINE LINGERS OVER S TX...LOW-LEVEL FLOW FIELD WITHIN THE NE QUADRANT OF THE SYSTEM -- ACROSS A SIZEABLE PORTION OF ERN/SERN TX -- WILL REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF CONVECTIVE UPDRAFT ROTATION. AS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE INCREASES AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IN CONJUNCTION WITH AFTERNOON HEATING/MODEST DESTABILIZATION...POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADOES SHOULD INCREASE. WHILE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS LIMITED/MARGINAL...POTENTIAL APPEARS GREAT ENOUGH TO INTRODUCE A LOW-END SLIGHT RISK. ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY REGION... THE COLD FRONT PROGRESSING ACROSS THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY/LOWER LAKES REGION TODAY WILL SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AS MARGINAL AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION OF THE WARM SECTOR OCCURS. THOUGH LACK OF A MORE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT SHOULD LIMIT STORM INTENSITY OVERALL...A FEW STRONGER STORMS NEAR PEAK HEATING COULD -- AIDED BY MODERATE MID-LEVEL WLYS -- INTENSIFY TO BRIEFLY SEVERE LEVELS. THUS...WILL MAINTAIN 5% HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL ACROSS THIS REGION. ..GOSS/STOPPKOTTE.. 09/07/2010 Read more
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